Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, savant contact quality leans over.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles — OVER 7.77
PENDING
LeanOVER 7.77
Odds-111
Confidence0.589
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 1:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupZack Wheeler vs Kyle Bradish
Run-total lens: OVER 7.77 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Zack Wheeler vs Kyle Bradish
Weather: 88.7°F, Wind 12.5 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 47%, P.O.P. 7% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.82 to 7.77 (-0.05).
Run Total 3
Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 7.5
PENDING
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-117
Confidence0.504
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 3:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJacob Misiorowski vs Walbert Ureña
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, team/park run history leans under, savant contact quality leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jacob Misiorowski vs Walbert Ureña
Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks — UNDER 8.0
PENDING
LeanUNDER 8.0
Odds-113
Confidence0.481
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 1:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGavin Williams vs Merrill Kelly
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.0 in Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, team/park run history leans over, savant contact quality leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants — UNDER 8.05
PENDING
LeanUNDER 8.05
Odds-109
Confidence0.449
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMichael King vs Landen Roupp
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.05 in San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down, team/park run history leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.09 to 8.05 (-0.04).
Run Total 6
Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners — UNDER 7.09
PENDING
LeanUNDER 7.09
Odds-102
Confidence0.401
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTaj Bradley vs George Kirby
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.09 in Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Taj Bradley vs George Kirby
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.23 to 7.09 (-0.14).
Run Total 7
New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs — OVER 6.5
PENDING
LeanOVER 6.5
Odds-111
Confidence0.379
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 2:20 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGerrit Cole vs Colin Rea
Run-total lens: OVER 6.5 in New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing in, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Gerrit Cole vs Colin Rea
Weather: 72.0°F, Wind 13.3 mph N (in from CF), Humidity 86%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 6.5.
Run Total 8
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers — OVER 8.59
PENDING
LeanOVER 8.59
Odds-115
Confidence0.351
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPeter Lambert vs Kumar Rocker
Run-total lens: OVER 8.59 in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, savant contact quality leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Peter Lambert vs Kumar Rocker
Weather: 91.0°F, Wind 1.6 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 52%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 8.59.
Run Total 9
Detroit Tigers vs Athletics — OVER 11.0
PENDING
LeanOVER 11.0
Odds-108
Confidence0.296
VenueSutter Health Park
Game InfoStart: 4:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKeider Montero vs Gage Jump
Run-total lens: OVER 11.0 in Detroit Tigers vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 11.05 to 11.0 (-0.05).
Run Total 10
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates — UNDER 8.5
PENDING
LeanUNDER 8.5
Odds-112
Confidence0.222
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 1:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupChase Burns vs Mitch Keller
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.5 in Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, team/park run history leans under.
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.68 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Griffin Jax vs Anthony Kay
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 7.68.
Run Total 12
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets — OVER 8.5
PENDING
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-117
Confidence0.202
VenueCiti Field
Game InfoStart: 1:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSandy Alcantara vs Robert Stock
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Miami Marlins vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-lf mismatches left-heavy top bats, offensive indicator edge, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays — UNDER 9.0
PENDING
LeanUNDER 9.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.139
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 1:37 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMatthew Liberatore vs Max Scherzer
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.0 in St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Matthew Liberatore vs Max Scherzer
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 9.0.
Run Total 14
Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 12.18
PENDING
LeanOVER 12.18
Odds-109
Confidence0.001
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 3:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKyle Freeland vs Seth Lugo
Run-total lens: OVER 12.18 in Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, park leans hitter-friendly, team/park run history leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Freeland vs Seth Lugo
Weather: 100.5°F, Wind 8.6 mph ENE (in from LF), Humidity 8%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)