Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Pitching MatchupMatthew Liberatore vs David Peterson
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Matthew Liberatore vs David Peterson
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.5 to 9.0 (-0.5).
Run Total 3
Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 9.0
In Progress
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-110
Confidence0.601
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupChase Burns vs Slade Cecconi
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.45 to 8.88 (+0.43).
Run Total 4
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.529
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMitch Keller vs Merrill Kelly
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf mismatches left-heavy top bats, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 8.89
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.89
Odds-107
Confidence0.468
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEddy Yean vs Max Scherzer
Run-total lens: OVER 8.89 in Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Eddy Yean vs Max Scherzer
Weather: 88.7°F, Wind 3.2 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 45%, P.O.P. 6% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 10.0 to 8.82 (-1.18).
Run Total 6
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins — UNDER 8.17
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.17
Odds-109
Confidence0.402
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupZack Wheeler vs Tyler Phillips
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.17 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Zack Wheeler vs Tyler Phillips
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.18 (+0.68).
Run Total 7
Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers — OVER 8.0
WIN
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-114
Confidence0.327
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 2:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGeorge Kirby vs Kumar Rocker
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: George Kirby vs Kumar Rocker
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 8
New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 8.17
WIN
LeanOVER 8.17
Odds-111
Confidence0.313
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMax Fried vs Noah Schultz
Run-total lens: OVER 8.17 in New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Max Fried vs Noah Schultz
Weather: 72.8°F, Wind 6.2 mph SE (in from CF), Humidity 98%, P.O.P. 30% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.05 (-0.45).
Run Total 9
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets — OVER 7.39
WIN
LeanOVER 7.39
Odds-101
Confidence0.312
VenueCiti Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMartín Pérez vs Zac Thornton
Run-total lens: OVER 7.39 in Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.32 to 7.5 (-0.82).
Run Total 10
Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants — OVER 7.5
In Progress
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-116
Confidence0.301
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 9:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBrandon Sproat vs Tyler Mahle
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 7.5 (-1).
Run Total 11
Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels — UNDER 8.17
In Progress
LeanUNDER 8.17
Odds-111
Confidence0.189
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTatsuya Imai vs Walbert Ureña
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.17 in Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.18 (-0.32).
Run Total 12
Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles — UNDER 9.11
LOSS
LeanUNDER 9.11
Odds-108
Confidence0.131
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKeider Montero vs Kyle Bradish
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.11 in Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up, team/park run history leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Keider Montero vs Kyle Bradish
Weather: 80.2°F, Wind 10.8 mph SW (in from LF), Humidity 67%, P.O.P. 31% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.45 to 9.18 (+0.73).