St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 8.56
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.56
Odds-110
Confidence0.674
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupAndre Pallante vs Hunter Greene
Run-total lens: OVER 8.56 in St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.32 to 8.59 (+0.27).
Run Total 2
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs — OVER 8.56
WIN
LeanOVER 8.56
Odds-114
Confidence0.479
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPaul Skenes vs Shota Imanaga
Run-total lens: OVER 8.56 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.86 to 8.82 (+0.96).
Run Total 3
Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 10.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 10.0
Odds-108
Confidence0.472
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 4:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupFoster Griffin vs Mitch Bratt
Run-total lens: OVER 10.0 in Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.0 to 10.0 (+1).
Run Total 4
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-108
Confidence0.374
VenueFenway Park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSonny Gray vs Dylan Cease
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing in, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Sonny Gray vs Dylan Cease
Weather: 78.2°F, Wind 11.5 mph E (in from LF), Humidity 38%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.14 (+0.64).
Run Total 5
Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants — OVER 8.1
WIN
LeanOVER 8.1
Odds-108
Confidence0.354
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 4:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRyan Johnson vs Robbie Ray
Run-total lens: OVER 8.1 in Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Ryan Johnson vs Robbie Ray
Weather: 71.5°F, Wind 14.8 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 66%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.73 to 7.86 (-0.87).
Run Total 6
Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals — UNDER 7.91
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.91
Odds-114
Confidence0.35
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 1:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCasey Mize vs Michael Wacha
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.91 in Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up, team/park run history leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.23 to 9.18 (+0.95).
Run Total 7
Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves — OVER 8.94
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.94
Odds-106
Confidence0.345
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBrandon Young vs Bryce Elder
Run-total lens: OVER 8.94 in Baltimore Orioles vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Young vs Bryce Elder
Weather: 79.1°F, Wind 4.7 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 42%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.68 (-0.32).
Run Total 8
Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres — OVER 8.7
WIN
LeanOVER 8.7
Odds-109
Confidence0.329
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEury Pérez vs Randy Vásquez
Run-total lens: OVER 8.7 in Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Eury Pérez vs Randy Vásquez
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 8.59 (+0.59).
Run Total 9
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets — OVER 9.12
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.12
Odds-112
Confidence0.268
VenueCiti Field
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupYoshinobu Yamamoto vs Nolan McLean
Run-total lens: OVER 9.12 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, team/park run history leans under, savant contact quality leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Nolan McLean
Weather: 75.8°F, Wind 6.5 mph ESE (out to LF), Humidity 49%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 9.23 (+1.23).
Run Total 10
Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros — UNDER 9.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 9.5
Odds-116
Confidence0.228
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSean Burke vs Hunter Brown
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total up, run context favors under, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Sean Burke vs Hunter Brown
Weather: 77.0°F, Wind 9.3 mph SSW (in from LF), Humidity 74%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.15 to 9.36 (+1.21).
Run Total 11
Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers — UNDER 7.06
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.06
Odds-108
Confidence0.224
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBryan Woo vs Nathan Eovaldi
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.06 in Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Bryan Woo vs Nathan Eovaldi
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.5 to 7.09 (-0.41).
Run Total 12
Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 7.44
WIN
LeanOVER 7.44
Odds-102
Confidence0.223
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRobert Gasser vs Ryan Feltner
Run-total lens: OVER 7.44 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Robert Gasser vs Ryan Feltner
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 7.5 (-1).
Run Total 13
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees — UNDER 8.0
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.0
Odds-102
Confidence0.106
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 6:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTim Mayza vs Ryan Weathers
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.0 in Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tim Mayza vs Ryan Weathers
Weather: 80.2°F, Wind 8.4 mph E (in from LF), Humidity 43%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 7.91 (-0.59).
Run Total 14
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians — UNDER 7.0
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.0
Odds-107
Confidence0.05
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 6:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupNick Martinez vs Tanner Bibee
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.0 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Nick Martinez vs Tanner Bibee
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.59 to 7.0 (-0.59).
Run Total 15
Minnesota Twins vs Athletics — OVER 10.36
LOSS
LeanOVER 10.36
Odds-105
Confidence0.018
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKendry Rojas vs Brady Basso
Run-total lens: OVER 10.36 in Minnesota Twins vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kendry Rojas vs Brady Basso
Weather: 84.4°F, Wind 2.9 mph SSW (in from LF), Humidity 73%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 10.5 to 10.23 (-0.27).