Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Miami Marlins vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Janson Junk vs Freddy Peralta
Weather: 82.5°F, Wind 4.8 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 50%, P.O.P. 2% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 8.5.
Run Total 2
Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 11.05
PENDING
LeanOVER 11.05
Odds-113
Confidence0.527
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 8:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMichael Wacha vs Tomoyuki Sugano
Run-total lens: OVER 11.05 in Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing in, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Michael Wacha vs Tomoyuki Sugano
Weather: 88.8°F, Wind 14.4 mph NNE (in from CF), Humidity 18%, P.O.P. 14% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 11.05.
Run Total 3
Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees — OVER 9.0
PENDING
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-115
Confidence0.479
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 2:20 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShota Imanaga vs Will Warren
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Shota Imanaga vs Will Warren
Weather: 77.4°F, Wind 10.5 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 75%, P.O.P. 2% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 9.0.
Run Total 4
Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals — UNDER 7.5
PENDING
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-111
Confidence0.348
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 7:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDylan Cease vs Kyle Leahy
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, savant contact quality leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Dylan Cease vs Kyle Leahy
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.55 to 7.5 (-0.05).
Run Total 5
Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins — UNDER 7.82
PENDING
LeanUNDER 7.82
Odds-108
Confidence0.336
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBryce Miller vs Zebby Matthews
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.82 in Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, park leans pitcher-friendly, run context favors over, savant contact quality leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Bryce Miller vs Zebby Matthews
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 7.82.
Run Total 6
Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 8.5
PENDING
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-116
Confidence0.323
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTanner Bibee vs Mitch Bratt
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, team/park run history leans over, savant contact quality leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tanner Bibee vs Mitch Bratt
Weather: 83.6°F, Wind 3.5 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 36%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 8.5.
Run Total 7
Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox — UNDER 8.32
PENDING
LeanUNDER 8.32
Odds-111
Confidence0.265
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupNick Martinez vs Erick Fedde
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.32 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Nick Martinez vs Erick Fedde
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 8.32.
Run Total 8
Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves — OVER 9.0
PENDING
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-113
Confidence0.263
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupFoster Griffin vs Bryce Elder
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, savant contact quality leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 9.0
PENDING
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.232
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShane Drohan vs Ryan Johnson
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, team/park run history leans under, savant contact quality leans under.
Run-total lens: OVER 10.55 in Detroit Tigers vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Pitching MatchupEdgardo Henriquez vs Ranger Suarez
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Edgardo Henriquez vs Ranger Suarez
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.0 in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, savant contact quality leans under, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Hunter Brown vs Nathan Eovaldi
Weather: 91.8°F, Wind 9.8 mph S (out to CF), Humidity 50%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 8.0.
Run Total 13
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants — OVER 8.5
PENDING
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-110
Confidence0.142
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 9:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBradgley Rodriguez vs Carson Whisenhunt
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Bradgley Rodriguez vs Carson Whisenhunt
Weather: 73.6°F, Wind 6.6 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 86%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 8.5.
Run Total 14
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds — UNDER 7.55
PENDING
LeanUNDER 7.55
Odds-103
Confidence0.122
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 6:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPaul Skenes vs Hunter Greene
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.55 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Paul Skenes vs Hunter Greene
Weather: 91.0°F, Wind 4.7 mph S (in from LF), Humidity 27%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 7.55 (+0.05).