Run-total lens: OVER 14.21 in Athletics vs Milwaukee Brewers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 12.32 to 14.5 (+2.18).
Run Total 2
New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 7.75
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.75
Odds-112
Confidence0.921
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGerrit Cole vs Slade Cecconi
Run-total lens: OVER 7.75 in New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Gerrit Cole vs Slade Cecconi
Weather: 86.1°F, Wind 11.7 mph S (out to CF), Humidity 58%, P.O.P. 16% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.27 to 7.64 (-0.63).
Run Total 3
Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs — OVER 12.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 12.0
Odds-114
Confidence0.908
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 8:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTomoyuki Sugano vs Colin Rea
Run-total lens: OVER 12.0 in Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing in, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tomoyuki Sugano vs Colin Rea
Weather: 80.5°F, Wind 15.6 mph NE (in from LF), Humidity 34%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 12.32 to 12.0 (-0.32).
Run Total 4
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers — OVER 7.75
WIN
LeanOVER 7.75
Odds-115
Confidence0.654
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPaul Skenes vs Eric Lauer
Run-total lens: OVER 7.75 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Paul Skenes vs Eric Lauer
Weather: 82.0°F, Wind 6.1 mph S (in from LF), Humidity 72%, P.O.P. 17% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.86 to 7.82 (-0.04).
Run Total 5
Chicago White Sox vs Atlanta Braves — OVER 7.5
WIN
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-110
Confidence0.526
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBrandon Eisert vs Grant Holmes
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Eisert vs Grant Holmes
Weather: 83.3°F, Wind 5.4 mph W (out to LF), Humidity 63%, P.O.P. 10% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.14 to 7.5 (-1.64).
Run Total 6
St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets — OVER 8.43
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.43
Odds-105
Confidence0.47
VenueCiti Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDustin May vs Freddy Peralta
Run-total lens: OVER 8.43 in St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over, run context favors under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.73 to 8.45 (+0.72).
Run Total 7
Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-113
Confidence0.462
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 9:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupAndrew Alvarez vs Adrian Houser
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.36 to 8.5 (+0.14).
Run Total 8
Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-105
Confidence0.418
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 6:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTrevor Rogers vs Logan Gilbert
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf aligns with right-handed top bats, market moved total up, run context favors over, savant contact quality leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Trevor Rogers vs Logan Gilbert
Weather: 79.6°F, Wind 9.3 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 56%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.0 (+0.5).
Run Total 9
Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.381
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKai-Wei Teng vs Walbert Ureña
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, team/park run history leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 8.42
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.42
Odds-111
Confidence0.35
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 7:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupZack Wheeler vs Dylan Cease
Run-total lens: OVER 8.42 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, market moved total up, savant contact quality leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Zack Wheeler vs Dylan Cease
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.45 (+0.95).
Run Total 11
Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers — OVER 9.57
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.57
Odds-118
Confidence0.32
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupStephen Kolek vs Nathan Eovaldi
Run-total lens: OVER 9.57 in Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, warm run environment, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Stephen Kolek vs Nathan Eovaldi
Weather: 89.4°F, Wind 13.9 mph S (out to LF), Humidity 65%, P.O.P. 2% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.18 to 9.73 (+0.55).
Run Total 12
Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres — OVER 8.0
PUSH
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-111
Confidence0.283
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupChase Burns vs Lucas Giolito
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Chase Burns vs Lucas Giolito
Weather: 70.1°F, Wind 5.4 mph W (in from RF), Humidity 76%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.0 (+0.5).
Run Total 13
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-101
Confidence0.07
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPayton Tolle vs Nick Martinez
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Payton Tolle vs Nick Martinez
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 7.5.
Run Total 14
Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins — UNDER 8.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.5
Odds-104
Confidence0.066
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTroy Melton vs Taj Bradley
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Troy Melton vs Taj Bradley
Weather: 80.7°F, Wind 10.1 mph S (in from CF), Humidity 81%, P.O.P. 29% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 14.5 (+6.5).
Run Total 15
Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 8.08
WIN
LeanOVER 8.08
Odds-108
Confidence0.054
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMax Meyer vs Zac Gallen
Run-total lens: OVER 8.08 in Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Max Meyer vs Zac Gallen
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.55 to 8.09 (+0.54).