Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Anthony Kay vs Grant Holmes
Weather: 73.8°F, Wind 8.4 mph NNE (out to RF), Humidity 84%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 2
New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles — UNDER 7.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-120
Confidence0.523
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 6:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGerrit Cole vs Kyle Bradish
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Gerrit Cole vs Kyle Bradish
Weather: 77.6°F, Wind 12.0 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 85%, P.O.P. 43% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 3
Kansas City Royals vs Athletics — OVER 8.0
PUSH
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-115
Confidence0.499
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRandy Dobnak vs Gage Jump
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Kansas City Royals vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Randy Dobnak vs Gage Jump
Weather: 79.7°F, Wind 3.2 mph ENE (in from LF), Humidity 83%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 4
Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 8.0
WIN
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-114
Confidence0.346
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPeter Lambert vs Grayson Rodriguez
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Peter Lambert vs Grayson Rodriguez
Run-total lens: OVER 7.0 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Ian Seymour vs Shane Bieber
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 6
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-107
Confidence0.169
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 12:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMichael McGreevy vs Brady Singer
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Michael McGreevy vs Brady Singer
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Robert Gasser vs George Kirby
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 8
Cleveland Guardians vs San Francisco Giants — OVER 7.0
PUSH
LeanOVER 7.0
Odds-102
Confidence0.084
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 1:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGavin Williams vs Landen Roupp
Run-total lens: OVER 7.0 in Cleveland Guardians vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Gavin Williams vs Landen Roupp
Weather: 74.9°F, Wind 7.3 mph NNE (in from CF), Humidity 77%, P.O.P. 21% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 9
Washington Nationals vs Texas Rangers — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.005
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupAndrew Alvarez vs Jacob deGrom
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Washington Nationals vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Andrew Alvarez vs Jacob deGrom
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.