Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 9.81
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.81
Odds-104
Confidence0.742
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupZack Wheeler vs José Soriano
Run-total lens: OVER 9.81 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Zack Wheeler vs José Soriano
Weather: 87.9°F, Wind 10.5 mph WNW (in from RF), Humidity 65%, P.O.P. 16% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.91 to 9.64 (+1.73).
Run Total 2
Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins — OVER 8.0
WIN
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-106
Confidence0.709
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShane Drohan vs Zebby Matthews
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Shane Drohan vs Zebby Matthews
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.7 to 8.0 (+0.3).
Run Total 3
Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-116
Confidence0.707
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCarmen Mlodzinski vs Zac Thornton
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Carmen Mlodzinski vs Zac Thornton
Weather: 79.2°F, Wind 5.1 mph ESE (in from CF), Humidity 87%, P.O.P. 18% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.27 to 8.5 (+0.23).
Run Total 4
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 8.39
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.39
Odds-122
Confidence0.597
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRoki Sasaki vs Merrill Kelly
Run-total lens: OVER 8.39 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Roki Sasaki vs Merrill Kelly
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.1 to 8.36 (-0.74).
Run Total 5
Boston Red Sox vs Athletics — OVER 9.19
WIN
LeanOVER 9.19
Odds-111
Confidence0.502
VenueFenway Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPayton Tolle vs Jack Perkins
Run-total lens: OVER 9.19 in Boston Red Sox vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Payton Tolle vs Jack Perkins
Weather: 87.9°F, Wind 7.5 mph W (out to RF), Humidity 46%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.95 to 9.18 (+0.23).
Run Total 6
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 8.0
WIN
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-106
Confidence0.469
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupParker Messick vs Noah Schultz
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Parker Messick vs Noah Schultz
Weather: 81.2°F, Wind 3.4 mph SW (in from LF), Humidity 73%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.32 to 8.0 (-0.32).
Run Total 7
Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-117
Confidence0.445
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCade Cavalli vs Chase Petty
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.5 (-0.5).
Run Total 8
New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-115
Confidence0.38
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMax Fried vs Tyler Mahle
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Max Fried vs Tyler Mahle
Weather: 73.7°F, Wind 4.1 mph SE (in from LF), Humidity 100%, P.O.P. 67% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.09 to 7.5 (-0.59).
Run Total 9
Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-111
Confidence0.379
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 8:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupNathan Eovaldi vs Shane Baz
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Nathan Eovaldi vs Shane Baz
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.95 to 7.5 (-0.45).
Run Total 10
Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners — OVER 7.39
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.39
Odds-101
Confidence0.357
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 9:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDrew Rasmussen vs Logan Gilbert
Run-total lens: OVER 7.39 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Drew Rasmussen vs Logan Gilbert
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.0 to 7.27 (+0.27).
Run Total 11
St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 8.94
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.94
Odds-104
Confidence0.354
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 8:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKyle Leahy vs Ryan Feltner
Run-total lens: OVER 8.94 in St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.55 to 8.95 (+0.4).
Run Total 12
Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 9.5
WIN
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-113
Confidence0.323
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKevin Gausman vs Daniel Lynch IV
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf aligns with right-handed top bats, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kevin Gausman vs Daniel Lynch IV
Weather: 83.5°F, Wind 7.7 mph S (out to LF), Humidity 64%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.67 to 9.5 (-0.17).
Run Total 13
Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels — UNDER 8.0
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.0
Odds-103
Confidence0.29
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTyler Phillips vs George Klassen
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.0 in Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tyler Phillips vs George Klassen
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.05 (-0.95).
Run Total 14
San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros — OVER 8.0
WIN
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-107
Confidence0.16
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRobbie Ray vs Ronel Blanco
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Robbie Ray vs Ronel Blanco
Weather: 78.4°F, Wind 6.9 mph WNW (in from RF), Humidity 73%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.05 to 7.95 (-0.1).
Run Total 15
Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.159
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 10:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKeider Montero vs JT Brubaker
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, cool run environment, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge.