Run-total lens: OVER 7.61 in New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Gerrit Cole vs Anthony Kay
Weather: 70.2°F, Wind 11.6 mph N (out to RF), Humidity 73%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.05 to 7.5 (-0.55).
Run Total 2
Boston Red Sox vs Athletics — OVER 10.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 10.5
Odds-116
Confidence0.682
VenueSutter Health Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJake Bennett vs Gage Jump
Run-total lens: OVER 10.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.5 to 10.5 (+1).
Run Total 3
Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 9.5
WIN
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.647
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCade Cavalli vs Shane Bieber
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.59 to 9.5 (+0.91).
Run Total 4
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins — UNDER 8.0
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.0
Odds-111
Confidence0.497
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupAaron Nola vs Sandy Alcantara
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.0 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Aaron Nola vs Sandy Alcantara
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.14 to 7.65 (-0.49).
Run Total 5
Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles — OVER 8.11
WIN
LeanOVER 8.11
Odds-109
Confidence0.49
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTroy Melton vs Dean Kremer
Run-total lens: OVER 8.11 in Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Troy Melton vs Dean Kremer
Weather: 77.1°F, Wind 9.7 mph N (out to CF), Humidity 64%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.18 to 7.95 (-1.23).
Run Total 6
San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 8.43
WIN
LeanOVER 8.43
Odds-105
Confidence0.465
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMichael King vs Michael Lorenzen
Run-total lens: OVER 8.43 in San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Michael King vs Michael Lorenzen
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.09 to 8.14 (+0.05).
Run Total 7
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-119
Confidence0.443
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJustin Wrobleski vs Luis Castillo
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Justin Wrobleski vs Luis Castillo
Weather: 77.1°F, Wind 7.5 mph W (out to RF), Humidity 70%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.5 to 9.15 (-0.35).
Run Total 8
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets — OVER 7.0
PUSH
LeanOVER 7.0
Odds-123
Confidence0.321
VenueCiti Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupChris Sale vs Christian Scott
Run-total lens: OVER 7.0 in Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, team/park run history leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Chris Sale vs Christian Scott
Weather: 80.0°F, Wind 7.1 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 65%, P.O.P. 18% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.5 to 7.31 (-0.19).
Run Total 9
Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.303
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 1:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupChase Burns vs Slade Cecconi
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, high humidity suppresses carry, park leans hitter-friendly, run context favors over.
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Gavin Williams vs Caleb Ferguson
Run-total lens: OVER 8.64 in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.05 to 8.64 (-0.41).
Run Total 12
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-107
Confidence0.199
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBubba Chandler vs Brandon Pfaadt
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Bubba Chandler vs Brandon Pfaadt
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.5 (-0.5).
Run Total 13
Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros — OVER 9.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-108
Confidence0.163
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Pitching MatchupReid Detmers vs Peter Lambert
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.18 to 9.5 (+1.32).
Run Total 14
Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers — UNDER 7.62
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.62
Odds-105
Confidence0.144
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGriffin Jax vs Cal Quantrill
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.62 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Griffin Jax vs Cal Quantrill
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.23 to 7.5 (-0.73).
Run Total 15
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 7.72
WIN
LeanOVER 7.72
Odds-107
Confidence0.089
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupColin Rea vs Michael McGreevy
Run-total lens: OVER 7.72 in Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, market moved total down, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Colin Rea vs Michael McGreevy
Weather: 86.3°F, Wind 6.7 mph N (in from RF), Humidity 72%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.15 (-0.85).
Run Total 16
Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants — UNDER 7.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-107
Confidence0.04
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 9:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLogan Henderson vs Landen Roupp
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Logan Henderson vs Landen Roupp
Weather: 67.8°F, Wind 17.0 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 74%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)