Pitching MatchupYoshinobu Yamamoto vs Payton Tolle
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Payton Tolle
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 9.0 (+1).
Run Total 2
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-113
Confidence0.783
VenueCiti Field
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupZac Thornton vs Tyler Phillips
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in New York Mets vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.5 (-0.5).
Run Total 3
Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles — OVER 7.71
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.71
Odds-113
Confidence0.706
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCristopher Sánchez vs Shane Baz
Run-total lens: OVER 7.71 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, wind-to-lf aligns with right-handed top bats, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Cristopher Sánchez vs Shane Baz
Weather: 82.7°F, Wind 12.7 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 64%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.14 to 7.9 (-0.24).
Run Total 4
Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks — UNDER 8.0
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.0
Odds-106
Confidence0.652
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupParker Messick vs Kohl Drake
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.0 in Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under, savant contact quality leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Parker Messick vs Kohl Drake
Weather: 79.2°F, Wind 6.7 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 68%, P.O.P. 9% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.32 to 8.0 (-0.32).
Run Total 5
Detroit Tigers vs Athletics — OVER 11.12
WIN
LeanOVER 11.12
Odds-106
Confidence0.638
VenueSutter Health Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupFramber Valdez vs Jack Perkins
Run-total lens: OVER 11.12 in Detroit Tigers vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 10.5 to 11.1 (+0.6).
Run Total 6
Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 12.5
WIN
LeanOVER 12.5
Odds-106
Confidence0.617
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLuinder Avila vs Ryan Feltner
Run-total lens: OVER 12.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Luinder Avila vs Ryan Feltner
Weather: 94.1°F, Wind 7.3 mph NE (in from LF), Humidity 13%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 11.77 to 12.4 (+0.63).
Run Total 7
Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals — OVER 8.71
WIN
LeanOVER 8.71
Odds-113
Confidence0.464
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMartín Pérez vs Miles Mikolas
Run-total lens: OVER 8.71 in Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Martín Pérez vs Miles Mikolas
Weather: 85.2°F, Wind 8.3 mph S (in from LF), Humidity 64%, P.O.P. 12% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.5 to 8.79 (-0.71).
Run Total 8
Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins — UNDER 7.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-107
Confidence0.384
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLogan Gilbert vs Connor Prielipp
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Logan Gilbert vs Connor Prielipp
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.68 to 7.3 (-0.38).
Run Total 9
Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 7.56
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.56
Odds-117
Confidence0.381
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRobert Gasser vs Brent Suter
Run-total lens: OVER 7.56 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, savant contact quality leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 7.5 (-1).
Run Total 10
San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres — UNDER 8.12
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.12
Odds-111
Confidence0.363
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 8:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTyler Mahle vs Walker Buehler
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.12 in San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.1 (-0.4).
Run Total 11
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers — OVER 8.64
WIN
LeanOVER 8.64
Odds-114
Confidence0.335
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRonel Blanco vs Jacob deGrom
Run-total lens: OVER 8.64 in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Ronel Blanco vs Jacob deGrom
Weather: 87.1°F, Wind 5.2 mph WNW (in from RF), Humidity 83%, P.O.P. 4% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 8.67 (+0.17).
Run Total 12
Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox — UNDER 7.88
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.88
Odds-111
Confidence0.32
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDrew Rasmussen vs Jordan Hicks
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.88 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Drew Rasmussen vs Jordan Hicks
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.05 to 7.78 (-0.27).
Run Total 13
New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs — OVER 6.5
WIN
LeanOVER 6.5
Odds-115
Confidence0.259
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMax Fried vs David Peterson
Run-total lens: OVER 6.5 in New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing in, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Max Fried vs David Peterson
Weather: 69.6°F, Wind 14.8 mph NNE (in from CF), Humidity 94%, P.O.P. 26% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total unchanged at 6.5.
Run Total 14
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds — UNDER 8.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.5
Odds-115
Confidence0.251
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBraxton Ashcraft vs Andrew Abbott
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.5 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Braxton Ashcraft vs Andrew Abbott
Weather: 78.0°F, Wind 10.2 mph SSE (in from LF), Humidity 83%, P.O.P. 70% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.45 to 8.5 (+0.05).
Run Total 15
Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 9.25
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.25
Odds-115
Confidence0.24
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 3:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKevin Gausman vs Quinn Mathews
Run-total lens: OVER 9.25 in Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kevin Gausman vs Quinn Mathews
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.0 (+0.5).