Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-117
Confidence0.702
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRoki Sasaki vs Bryan Woo
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Roki Sasaki vs Bryan Woo
Weather: 77.0°F, Wind 8.2 mph W (out to RF), Humidity 67%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.62 (+1.12).
Run Total 2
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.541
VenueCiti Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEury Pérez vs Nolan McLean
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Miami Marlins vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.0 to 8.5 (+1.5).
Run Total 3
Boston Red Sox vs Athletics — OVER 10.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 10.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.502
VenueSutter Health Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSonny Gray vs Mason Barnett
Run-total lens: OVER 10.0 in Boston Red Sox vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 10.5 to 10.56 (+0.06).
Run Total 4
Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers — UNDER 7.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-107
Confidence0.5
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 12:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShane McClanahan vs Cole Winn
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Shane McClanahan vs Cole Winn
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 5
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants — UNDER 8.36
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.36
Odds-113
Confidence0.484
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJP Sears vs Robbie Ray
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.36 in San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 7.44 (-1.06).
Run Total 6
Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds+101
Confidence0.469
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSean Burke vs Ryan Weathers
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Sean Burke vs Ryan Weathers
Weather: 78.3°F, Wind 7.5 mph E (in from CF), Humidity 75%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 7
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 7.79
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.79
Odds-110
Confidence0.351
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupYohan Ramírez vs Rhett Lowder
Run-total lens: OVER 7.79 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down, savant contact quality leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Yohan Ramírez vs Rhett Lowder
Weather: 84.0°F, Wind 3.0 mph NNE (out to RF), Humidity 44%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.5 to 7.5 (-2).
Run Total 8
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins — UNDER 9.0
WIN
LeanUNDER 9.0
Odds-105
Confidence0.322
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 1:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupNoah Cameron vs Bailey Ober
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.0 in Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Noah Cameron vs Bailey Ober
Weather: 84.4°F, Wind 10.2 mph SSW (in from LF), Humidity 64%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 9
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals — UNDER 8.14
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.14
Odds-108
Confidence0.263
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 2:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJavier Assad vs Andre Pallante
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.14 in Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Javier Assad vs Andre Pallante
Weather: 85.1°F, Wind 2.5 mph SE (in from LF), Humidity 56%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 10
Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals — UNDER 8.71
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.71
Odds-106
Confidence0.133
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGrant Holmes vs Jake Irvin
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.71 in Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, market moved total down, run context favors over, savant contact quality leans under.