Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves — OVER 9.36
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.36
Odds-106
Confidence0.762
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupFoster Griffin vs Bryce Elder
Run-total lens: OVER 9.36 in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Foster Griffin vs Bryce Elder
Weather: 87.6°F, Wind 5.0 mph SW (in from LF), Humidity 46%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.0 to 9.5 (+0.5).
Run Total 2
Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 12.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 12.0
Odds-104
Confidence0.708
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 8:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMichael Wacha vs Tomoyuki Sugano
Run-total lens: OVER 12.0 in Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Michael Wacha vs Tomoyuki Sugano
Total Movement: Total moved up from 11.05 to 11.94 (+0.89).
Run Total 3
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-106
Confidence0.648
VenueCiti Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJanson Junk vs Kodai Senga
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Miami Marlins vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.0 (+0.5).
Run Total 4
Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies — OVER 8.14
WIN
LeanOVER 8.14
Odds-106
Confidence0.579
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBrandon Young vs Andrew Painter
Run-total lens: OVER 8.14 in Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Young vs Andrew Painter
Weather: 85.0°F, Wind 7.3 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 53%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.1 (-0.9).
Run Total 5
Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-103
Confidence0.435
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 7:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDylan Cease vs Kyle Leahy
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Dylan Cease vs Kyle Leahy
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.55 to 8.5 (+0.95).
Run Total 6
Detroit Tigers vs Athletics — OVER 10.5
WIN
LeanOVER 10.5
Odds-120
Confidence0.431
VenueSutter Health Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTyler Holton vs Jeffrey Springs
Run-total lens: OVER 10.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Run-total lens: OVER 6.25 in Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 6.5 (-2.5).
Run Total 8
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox — OVER 8.06
WIN
LeanOVER 8.06
Odds-109
Confidence0.386
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEdgardo Henriquez vs Ranger Suarez
Run-total lens: OVER 8.06 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Edgardo Henriquez vs Ranger Suarez
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.0 (-0.5).
Run Total 9
Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox — UNDER 8.0
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.0
Odds-104
Confidence0.386
VenueTropicana Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupNick Martinez vs Erick Fedde
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.0 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Nick Martinez vs Erick Fedde
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.32 to 8.1 (-0.22).
Run Total 10
Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels — UNDER 8.94
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.94
Odds-117
Confidence0.375
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShane Drohan vs Ryan Johnson
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.94 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.95 (-0.05).
Run Total 11
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-120
Confidence0.324
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 9:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBradgley Rodriguez vs Carson Whisenhunt
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Bradgley Rodriguez vs Carson Whisenhunt
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, team/park run history leans under, savant contact quality leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Paul Skenes vs Hunter Greene
Weather: 82.7°F, Wind 5.1 mph SE (in from CF), Humidity 51%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.45 (+0.95).
Run Total 13
Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 8.14
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.14
Odds-112
Confidence0.295
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTanner Bibee vs Mitch Bratt
Run-total lens: OVER 8.14 in Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tanner Bibee vs Mitch Bratt
Weather: 79.1°F, Wind 3.6 mph N (in from CF), Humidity 73%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.15 (-0.35).
Run Total 14
Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins — UNDER 7.88
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.88
Odds-114
Confidence0.162
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBryce Miller vs Zebby Matthews
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.88 in Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Bryce Miller vs Zebby Matthews
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.82 to 8.0 (+0.18).
Run Total 15
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-101
Confidence0.049
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 8:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupHunter Brown vs Nathan Eovaldi
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, warm run environment, market moved total up, team/park run history leans under.