Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-105
Confidence0.856
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 6:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCristopher Sánchez vs Miles Mikolas
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Cristopher Sánchez vs Miles Mikolas
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-111
Confidence0.663
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKohl Drake vs Walker Buehler
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kohl Drake vs Walker Buehler
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 7.5 (-1.5).
Run Total 3
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets — OVER 7.0
WIN
LeanOVER 7.0
Odds-107
Confidence0.617
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 1:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupFoster Griffin vs Nolan McLean
Run-total lens: OVER 7.0 in Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Foster Griffin vs Nolan McLean
Weather: 85.4°F, Wind 4.5 mph W (in from RF), Humidity 58%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 4
Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels — UNDER 9.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 9.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.532
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 12:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBrandon Young vs Ryan Johnson
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Young vs Ryan Johnson
Weather: 88.5°F, Wind 6.0 mph S (out to CF), Humidity 62%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 5
Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.513
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 2:20 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDavid Peterson vs Dylan Cease
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: David Peterson vs Dylan Cease
Weather: 74.7°F, Wind 4.3 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 89%, P.O.P. 2% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 6
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-111
Confidence0.356
VenueFenway Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRanger Suarez vs Luis Castillo
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.0 to 23.5 (+14.5).
Run Total 7
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.343
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDustin May vs Braxton Ashcraft
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Dustin May vs Braxton Ashcraft
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 8
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins — UNDER 8.59
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.59
Odds-105
Confidence0.296
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMichael Wacha vs Bailey Ober
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.59 in Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Michael Wacha vs Bailey Ober
Weather: 78.7°F, Wind 6.9 mph ENE (in from LF), Humidity 79%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 9
Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins — UNDER 9.0
LOSS
LeanUNDER 9.0
Odds-111
Confidence0.228
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMartín Pérez vs Janson Junk
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.0 in Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Martín Pérez vs Janson Junk
Weather: 82.2°F, Wind 4.8 mph S (in from CF), Humidity 73%, P.O.P. 21% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 10
Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers — OVER 7.77
WIN
LeanOVER 7.77
Odds-113
Confidence0.195
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBryce Miller vs Framber Valdez
Run-total lens: OVER 7.77 in Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Bryce Miller vs Framber Valdez
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 11
Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 9.36
WIN
LeanOVER 9.36
Odds-104
Confidence0.021
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 12:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMason Barnett vs Andrew Abbott
Run-total lens: OVER 9.36 in Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Mason Barnett vs Andrew Abbott
Weather: 82.2°F, Wind 4.7 mph SE (in from CF), Humidity 80%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)