New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 8.0
WIN
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-105
Confidence0.832
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCam Schlittler vs Michael McGreevy
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Cam Schlittler vs Michael McGreevy
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.82 to 8.25 (+0.43).
Run Total 2
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals — OVER 8.86
WIN
LeanOVER 8.86
Odds-105
Confidence0.462
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupAaron Nola vs Andrew Alvarez
Run-total lens: OVER 8.86 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Aaron Nola vs Andrew Alvarez
Weather: 85.4°F, Wind 6.2 mph WNW (in from RF), Humidity 55%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.43 to 8.91 (-0.52).
Run Total 3
San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers — OVER 7.67
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.67
Odds-115
Confidence0.432
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLogan Webb vs Cal Quantrill
Run-total lens: OVER 7.67 in San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Logan Webb vs Cal Quantrill
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.05 to 7.64 (-0.41).
Run Total 4
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-101
Confidence0.406
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJustin Wrobleski vs Matthew Boyd
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Justin Wrobleski vs Matthew Boyd
Weather: 72.5°F, Wind 4.9 mph E (in from LF), Humidity 81%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 8.92 (+0.92).
Run Total 5
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates — OVER 7.64
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.64
Odds-110
Confidence0.378
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBrandon Sproat vs Bubba Chandler
Run-total lens: OVER 7.64 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Sproat vs Bubba Chandler
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.45 to 7.5 (-0.95).
Run Total 6
San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 9.38
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.38
Odds-103
Confidence0.197
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMichael King vs Brandon Pfaadt
Run-total lens: OVER 9.38 in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, market moved total down, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Michael King vs Brandon Pfaadt
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.68 to 8.57 (-0.11).
Run Total 7
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.154
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCristian Javier vs Shane Bieber
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, warm run environment, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.5 (-0.5).
Run Total 8
Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 11.17
WIN
LeanOVER 11.17
Odds-102
Confidence0.084
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 8:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupIan Seymour vs Michael Lorenzen
Run-total lens: OVER 11.17 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing in, warm run environment, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Ian Seymour vs Michael Lorenzen
Weather: 92.1°F, Wind 21.3 mph NE (in from LF), Humidity 15%, P.O.P. 9% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 11.5 to 11.14 (-0.36).