Run-total lens: OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Gabriel Hughes vs Freddy Peralta
Weather: 74.7°F, Wind 5.8 mph E (in from LF), Humidity 41%, P.O.P. 2% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 11.14 to 11.5 (+0.36).
Run Total 2
New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 8.64
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.64
Odds-115
Confidence0.98
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRyan Weathers vs Hunter Dobbins
Run-total lens: OVER 8.64 in New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Ryan Weathers vs Hunter Dobbins
Weather: 81.8°F, Wind 9.7 mph SSE (in from LF), Humidity 43%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.27 to 8.5 (+0.23).
Run Total 3
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals — OVER 9.64
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.64
Odds-113
Confidence0.848
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJesús Luzardo vs Carson Palmquist
Run-total lens: OVER 9.64 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jesús Luzardo vs Carson Palmquist
Weather: 86.4°F, Wind 2.6 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 44%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.95 to 9.5 (+0.55).
Run Total 4
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs — OVER 9.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-104
Confidence0.797
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTarik Skubal vs Javier Assad
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tarik Skubal vs Javier Assad
Weather: 77.6°F, Wind 1.7 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 78%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.91 to 9.44 (+0.53).
Run Total 5
Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-102
Confidence0.753
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 6:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCade Povich vs Grayson Rodriguez
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, savant contact quality leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Cade Povich vs Grayson Rodriguez
Weather: 85.1°F, Wind 6.5 mph ESE (in from LF), Humidity 60%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.38 (-0.12).
Run Total 6
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres — OVER 9.25
WIN
LeanOVER 9.25
Odds-110
Confidence0.616
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEduardo Rodriguez vs Randy Vásquez
Run-total lens: OVER 9.25 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Eduardo Rodriguez vs Randy Vásquez
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.6 to 9.35 (+0.75).
Run Total 7
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets — OVER 8.14
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.14
Odds-108
Confidence0.588
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJoey Cantillo vs Sean Manaea
Run-total lens: OVER 8.14 in Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Joey Cantillo vs Sean Manaea
Weather: 79.0°F, Wind 6.7 mph NNE (in from CF), Humidity 56%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.3 (+0.8).
Run Total 8
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-113
Confidence0.556
VenueKauffman Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRandy Dobnak vs Joe Ryan
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf mismatches left-heavy top bats, warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Randy Dobnak vs Joe Ryan
Weather: 89.3°F, Wind 7.5 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 57%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.05 to 9.0 (-0.05).
Run Total 9
Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners — UNDER 8.0
PUSH
LeanUNDER 8.0
Odds-112
Confidence0.436
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTroy Melton vs Emerson Hancock
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.0 in Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Troy Melton vs Emerson Hancock
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.0 to 7.85 (-0.15).
Run Total 10
Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 9.57
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.57
Odds-116
Confidence0.424
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJ.T. Ginn vs Brady Singer
Run-total lens: OVER 9.57 in Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors under, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: J.T. Ginn vs Brady Singer
Weather: 83.1°F, Wind 2.5 mph NE (in from RF), Humidity 57%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.05 to 9.55 (+0.5).
Run Total 11
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates — OVER 7.21
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.21
Odds-107
Confidence0.382
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLogan Henderson vs Jared Jones
Run-total lens: OVER 7.21 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Logan Henderson vs Jared Jones
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.5 to 7.33 (-0.17).
Run Total 12
San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers — OVER 8.0
WIN
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-115
Confidence0.342
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 8:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBlade Tidwell vs MacKenzie Gore
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Blade Tidwell vs MacKenzie Gore
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.59 to 8.17 (+0.58).
Run Total 13
Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins — UNDER 8.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.5
Odds-103
Confidence0.248
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupGrant Holmes vs Ryan Gusto
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.5 in Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: market moved total down, team/park run history leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.5 (-0.5).
Run Total 14
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays — UNDER 7.88
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.88
Odds-106
Confidence0.112
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 8:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupHayden Wesneski vs Trey Yesavage
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.88 in Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Hayden Wesneski vs Trey Yesavage
Weather: 88.9°F, Wind 9.9 mph SE (out to CF), Humidity 68%, P.O.P. 7% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.05 (-0.45).
Run Total 15
Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-106
Confidence0.047
VenueFenway Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDavis Martin vs Patrick Sandoval
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Davis Martin vs Patrick Sandoval
Weather: 85.0°F, Wind 5.4 mph W (out to RF), Humidity 36%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.5 (-0.5).