Run-total lens: OVER 8.79 in Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Noah Cameron vs Dean Kremer
Weather: 80.3°F, Wind 2.7 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 83%, P.O.P. 29% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.8 (-0.2).
Run Total 2
Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers — OVER 10.0
WIN
LeanOVER 10.0
Odds-106
Confidence0.707
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 2:20 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShota Imanaga vs Eric Lauer
Run-total lens: OVER 10.0 in Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-104
Confidence0.692
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupWill Warren vs Andre Pallante
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Will Warren vs Andre Pallante
Weather: 78.7°F, Wind 4.6 mph SE (in from LF), Humidity 87%, P.O.P. 34% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 4.5 (-4).
Run Total 4
Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-114
Confidence0.671
VenueFenway Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSean Burke vs Sonny Gray
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.36 to 9.0 (+0.64).
Run Total 5
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-119
Confidence0.648
VenueAmerican Family Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKyle Harrison vs Paul Skenes
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Harrison vs Paul Skenes
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.18 to 7.5 (+0.32).
Run Total 6
Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 11.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 11.0
Odds-113
Confidence0.631
VenueCoors Field
Game InfoStart: 3:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupNick Martinez vs Tomoyuki Sugano
Run-total lens: OVER 11.0 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Nick Martinez vs Tomoyuki Sugano
Weather: 73.1°F, Wind 3.6 mph NE (in from LF), Humidity 59%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 7
San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-106
Confidence0.531
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCasey Mize vs Mitch Bratt
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Casey Mize vs Mitch Bratt
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.23 to 9.0 (-0.23).
Run Total 8
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 8.0
WIN
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-115
Confidence0.529
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupHunter Brown vs Jameson Taillon
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals — UNDER 9.0
LOSS
LeanUNDER 9.0
Odds-124
Confidence0.347
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupAndrew Painter vs Jake Irvin
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.0 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Andrew Painter vs Jake Irvin
Weather: 80.8°F, Wind 6.4 mph NNE (in from CF), Humidity 94%, P.O.P. 20% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.5 to 8.67 (-0.83).
Run Total 10
Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants — OVER 8.32
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.32
Odds-110
Confidence0.314
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 2:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCody Bradford vs Carson Whisenhunt
Run-total lens: OVER 8.32 in Texas Rangers vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Cody Bradford vs Carson Whisenhunt
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 11
New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 7.56
WIN
LeanOVER 7.56
Odds-114
Confidence0.307
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupChristian Scott vs Tanner Bibee
Run-total lens: OVER 7.56 in New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, team/park run history leans over, savant contact quality leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Christian Scott vs Tanner Bibee
Weather: 81.7°F, Wind 5.8 mph N (in from CF), Humidity 60%, P.O.P. 3% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.36 to 7.5 (-0.86).
Run Total 12
Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels — UNDER 10.0
WIN
LeanUNDER 10.0
Odds-118
Confidence0.2
VenueOriole Park at Camden Yards
Game InfoStart: 6:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTrevor Rogers vs Reid Detmers
Run-total lens: UNDER 10.0 in Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Trevor Rogers vs Reid Detmers
Weather: 84.1°F, Wind 0.8 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 86%, P.O.P. 22% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.25 to 9.61 (+1.36).
Run Total 13
Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics — OVER 9.38
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.38
Odds-111
Confidence0.177
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRhett Lowder vs Jacob Lopez
Run-total lens: OVER 9.38 in Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.55 to 9.5 (-0.05).
Run Total 14
Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves — UNDER 8.79
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.79
Odds-106
Confidence0.096
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEury Pérez vs Bryce Elder
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.79 in Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, savant contact quality leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Eury Pérez vs Bryce Elder
Weather: 75.2°F, Wind 3.4 mph NNE (out to RF), Humidity 88%, P.O.P. 25% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.0 (+0.5).
Run Total 15
Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners — UNDER 7.5
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-108
Confidence0.038
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDrew Anderson vs Bryan Woo
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Drew Anderson vs Bryan Woo
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 7.86 to 7.5 (-0.36).