Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Cade Cavalli vs Kevin Gausman
Weather: 89.7°F, Wind 5.2 mph NW (in from RF), Humidity 51%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 2
New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-109
Confidence0.699
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 1:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMax Fried vs Logan Gilbert
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers — OVER 7.79
WIN
LeanOVER 7.79
Odds-110
Confidence0.336
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShane Drohan vs Roki Sasaki
Run-total lens: OVER 7.79 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 7.81 (-0.69).
Run Total 4
Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels — UNDER 7.39
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.39
Odds-117
Confidence0.319
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJacob deGrom vs Walbert Ureña
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.39 in Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, savant contact quality leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.06 to 6.92 (-1.14).
Run Total 5
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays — UNDER 7.72
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.72
Odds-109
Confidence0.303
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 3:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupPayton Tolle vs Max Scherzer
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.72 in Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Payton Tolle vs Max Scherzer
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 6
Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-119
Confidence0.277
VenueField of Dreams
Game InfoStart: 7:30 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTaj Bradley vs Aaron Nola
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Run-total lens: OVER 7.94 in Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Keider Montero vs Parker Messick
Weather: 80.8°F, Wind 4.0 mph SSW (in from LF), Humidity 76%, P.O.P. 9% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 8
Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates — UNDER 8.0
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.0
Odds-112
Confidence0.186
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 1:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTyler Phillips vs Braxton Ashcraft
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.0 in Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tyler Phillips vs Braxton Ashcraft
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.