Run-total lens: OVER 8.33 in Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-lf aligns with right-handed top bats, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Foster Griffin vs Framber Valdez
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.0 to 8.28 (+0.28).
Run Total 2
Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins — OVER 8.83
WIN
LeanOVER 8.83
Odds-105
Confidence0.665
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 1:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShane Baz vs Zebby Matthews
Run-total lens: OVER 8.83 in Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Shane Baz vs Zebby Matthews
Weather: 84.4°F, Wind 5.4 mph ENE (in from RF), Humidity 51%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 3
Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-117
Confidence0.602
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJackson Kent vs David Peterson
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jackson Kent vs David Peterson
Weather: 85.6°F, Wind 5.4 mph S (out to CF), Humidity 60%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.5 to 8.5 (-1).
Run Total 4
Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics — OVER 9.44
WIN
LeanOVER 9.44
Odds-106
Confidence0.476
VenueSutter Health Park
Game InfoStart: 3:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDrew Rasmussen vs Jack Perkins
Run-total lens: OVER 9.44 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Tyler Mahle vs Zac Thornton
Weather: 88.8°F, Wind 6.8 mph W (out to LF), Humidity 57%, P.O.P. 3% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 6
Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels — UNDER 8.07
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.07
Odds-106
Confidence0.351
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCal Quantrill vs George Klassen
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.07 in Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.28 to 8.06 (-1.22).
Run Total 7
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins — UNDER 7.83
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.83
Odds-108
Confidence0.334
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCarmen Mlodzinski vs Janson Junk
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.83 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Carmen Mlodzinski vs Janson Junk
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.17 to 7.94 (-0.23).
Run Total 8
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 8.0
WIN
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-105
Confidence0.289
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 7:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRanger Suarez vs José Soriano
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Ranger Suarez vs José Soriano
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.33 to 7.94 (+0.61).
Run Total 9
New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners — OVER 8.0
WIN
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-106
Confidence0.247
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupWill Warren vs Bryce Miller
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total down.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 7.94 (-0.56).
Run Total 10
Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals — OVER 7.89
WIN
LeanOVER 7.89
Odds-105
Confidence0.207
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 2:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupZack Wheeler vs Kyle Leahy
Run-total lens: OVER 7.89 in Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants — UNDER 8.17
WIN
LeanUNDER 8.17
Odds-109
Confidence0.201
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 3:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBryan King vs Adrian Houser
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.17 in Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Bryan King vs Adrian Houser
Weather: 68.8°F, Wind 7.4 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 77%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 12
Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-113
Confidence0.2
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDustin May vs Robbie Ray
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Dustin May vs Robbie Ray
Weather: 80.7°F, Wind 6.1 mph W (in from RF), Humidity 71%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 13
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 9.06
WIN
LeanOVER 9.06
Odds-116
Confidence0.19
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 3:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMerrill Kelly vs Ryan Feltner
Run-total lens: OVER 9.06 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Merrill Kelly vs Ryan Feltner
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 14
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.169
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEric Lauer vs Daniel Lynch IV
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, run context favors over.
Run-total lens: OVER 8.42 in Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Rhett Lowder vs Luis Castillo
Weather: 78.4°F, Wind 2.7 mph SE (in from CF), Humidity 76%, P.O.P. 4% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.94 to 8.44 (-0.5).