Run-total lens: OVER 10.5 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.81 to 15.0 (+5.19).
Run Total 2
St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies — OVER 8.33
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.33
Odds-105
Confidence0.709
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupAndre Pallante vs Cristopher Sánchez
Run-total lens: OVER 8.33 in St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Andre Pallante vs Cristopher Sánchez
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.11 to 8.33 (+0.22).
Run Total 3
Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers — OVER 9.14
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.14
Odds-112
Confidence0.647
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMichael Wacha vs Blake Snell
Run-total lens: OVER 9.14 in Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf aligns with left-handed top bats, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.11 to 9.19 (+1.08).
Run Total 4
Chicago White Sox vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 8.83
WIN
LeanOVER 8.83
Odds-110
Confidence0.566
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSean Burke vs Nick Lodolo
Run-total lens: OVER 8.83 in Chicago White Sox vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Sean Burke vs Nick Lodolo
Weather: 77.5°F, Wind 4.7 mph SSW (in from LF), Humidity 86%, P.O.P. 4% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.06 to 8.83 (+0.77).
Run Total 5
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 9.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-102
Confidence0.488
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMitch Bratt vs Tomoyuki Sugano
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Mitch Bratt vs Tomoyuki Sugano
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.22 to 9.5 (+0.28).
Run Total 6
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets — OVER 8.67
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.67
Odds-108
Confidence0.468
VenueTruist Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMartín Pérez vs Nolan McLean
Run-total lens: OVER 8.67 in Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Martín Pérez vs Nolan McLean
Weather: 73.9°F, Wind 3.0 mph SSW (in from LF), Humidity 93%, P.O.P. 45% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.33 to 8.67 (+0.34).
Run Total 7
Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres — OVER 8.0
WIN
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-111
Confidence0.259
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKyle Harrison vs Walker Buehler
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Harrison vs Walker Buehler
Weather: 78.6°F, Wind 8.7 mph WNW (in from RF), Humidity 70%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.67 to 8.06 (+0.39).
Run Total 8
Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-120
Confidence0.245
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBailey Ober vs Brandon Young
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Bailey Ober vs Brandon Young
Weather: 85.1°F, Wind 4.7 mph ENE (in from RF), Humidity 57%, P.O.P. 2% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.5 to 8.56 (-0.94).
Run Total 9
New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners — OVER 8.58
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.58
Odds-116
Confidence0.21
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRyan Weathers vs Bryan Woo
Run-total lens: OVER 8.58 in New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, park leans hitter-friendly, market moved total up, run context favors under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.22 to 8.5 (+0.28).
Run Total 10
Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-111
Confidence0.179
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 6:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupShota Imanaga vs Jake Irvin
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, market moved total up, savant contact quality leans over, savant hard-hit profile leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.94 to 9.44 (+0.5).
Run Total 11
Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates — UNDER 7.0
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.155
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEury Pérez vs Paul Skenes
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.0 in Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Eury Pérez vs Paul Skenes
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.0 to 8.33 (+1.33).
Run Total 12
Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels — UNDER 9.0
WIN
LeanUNDER 9.0
Odds-106
Confidence0.142
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCody Bradford vs Ryan Johnson
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.0 in Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 9.0 to 9.28 (+0.28).
Run Total 13
Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-107
Confidence0.086
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 9:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupHunter Brown vs Carson Whisenhunt
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind blowing out, high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Hunter Brown vs Carson Whisenhunt
Weather: 63.8°F, Wind 13.0 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 75%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.0 to 6.5 (-1.5).
Run Total 14
Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 8.0
WIN
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-108
Confidence0.081
VenueComerica Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDrew Anderson vs Tanner Bibee
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Drew Anderson vs Tanner Bibee
Weather: 76.6°F, Wind 5.0 mph S (in from CF), Humidity 85%, P.O.P. 11% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.5 to 8.0 (-0.5).
Run Total 15
Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox — OVER 7.5
WIN
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-104
Confidence0.072
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 7:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDylan Cease vs Patrick Sandoval
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Dylan Cease vs Patrick Sandoval
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.22 to 7.39 (+0.17).