Run-total lens: OVER 10.45 in Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Matthew Boyd vs Randy Dobnak
Weather: 84.4°F, Wind 14.1 mph S (out to LF), Humidity 73%, P.O.P. 3% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 2
Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-108
Confidence0.952
VenueCitizens Bank Park
Game InfoStart: 1:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJesús Luzardo vs Shane Bieber
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jesús Luzardo vs Shane Bieber
Weather: 92.4°F, Wind 4.5 mph W (out to RF), Humidity 50%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 3
New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-109
Confidence0.712
VenueYankee Stadium
Game InfoStart: 1:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCam Schlittler vs Grant Holmes
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Pitching MatchupJacob Misiorowski vs Connor Prielipp
Run-total lens: OVER 7.0 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jacob Misiorowski vs Connor Prielipp
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 6
Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-106
Confidence0.494
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 4:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTroy Melton vs Logan Webb
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Troy Melton vs Logan Webb
Weather: 73.7°F, Wind 10.9 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 65%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 7
Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets — OVER 8.14
WIN
LeanOVER 8.14
Odds-112
Confidence0.381
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 1:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJared Jones vs Sean Manaea
Run-total lens: OVER 8.14 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks — OVER 9.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-104
Confidence0.378
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJustin Wrobleski vs Eduardo Rodriguez
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Justin Wrobleski vs Eduardo Rodriguez
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 9
Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-106
Confidence0.351
VenueRate Field
Game InfoStart: 2:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupDavis Martin vs Joey Cantillo
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Davis Martin vs Joey Cantillo
Weather: 83.2°F, Wind 6.5 mph S (in from LF), Humidity 81%, P.O.P. 3% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 10
Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels — UNDER 8.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 8.5
Odds-116
Confidence0.324
VenueloanDepot park
Game InfoStart: 1:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRyan Gusto vs Grayson Rodriguez
Run-total lens: UNDER 8.5 in Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Ryan Gusto vs Grayson Rodriguez
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 11
Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 9.45
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.45
Odds-105
Confidence0.296
VenueNationals Park
Game InfoStart: 12:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBrad Lord vs Brady Singer
Run-total lens: OVER 9.45 in Washington Nationals vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Brad Lord vs Brady Singer
Weather: 93.6°F, Wind 7.2 mph W (out to RF), Humidity 45%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 12
Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles — OVER 8.18
WIN
LeanOVER 8.18
Odds-111
Confidence0.293
VenueGlobe Life Field
Game InfoStart: 2:35 PM ET
Pitching MatchupKumar Rocker vs Cade Povich
Run-total lens: OVER 8.18 in Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kumar Rocker vs Cade Povich
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 13
Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays — UNDER 7.41
WIN
LeanUNDER 7.41
Odds-118
Confidence0.209
VenueT-Mobile Park
Game InfoStart: 4:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEmerson Hancock vs Ian Seymour
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.41 in Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Emerson Hancock vs Ian Seymour
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 14
St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 9.05
WIN
LeanOVER 9.05
Odds-116
Confidence0.191
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 2:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMichael McGreevy vs Michael Lorenzen
Run-total lens: OVER 9.05 in St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Michael McGreevy vs Michael Lorenzen
Weather: 91.6°F, Wind 11.3 mph S (out to LF), Humidity 61%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 15
San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros — OVER 9.0
PUSH
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-109
Confidence0.01
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 8:20 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRandy Vásquez vs Cristian Javier
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Randy Vásquez vs Cristian Javier