Run-total lens: OVER 8.33 in Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.32 to 8.33 (+0.01).
Run Total 2
Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics — OVER 10.0
WIN
LeanOVER 10.0
Odds-114
Confidence0.703
VenueSutter Health Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupFreddy Peralta vs Jacob Lopez
Run-total lens: OVER 10.0 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.77 to 9.75 (-0.02).
Run Total 3
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 8.17
WIN
LeanOVER 8.17
Odds-106
Confidence0.684
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 10:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTarik Skubal vs Noah Cameron
Run-total lens: OVER 8.17 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: wind-to-rf mismatches right-heavy top bats, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, team/park run history leans over.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 8.11 (+0.61).
Run Total 4
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies — OVER 9.14
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.14
Odds-113
Confidence0.609
VenueChase Field
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMichael Soroka vs Gabriel Hughes
Run-total lens: OVER 9.14 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Michael Soroka vs Gabriel Hughes
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.22 (+0.72).
Run Total 5
Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres — OVER 7.64
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.64
Odds-107
Confidence0.591
VenuePetco Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLogan Henderson vs Casey Mize
Run-total lens: OVER 7.64 in Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total up.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 7.5 to 7.67 (+0.17).
Run Total 6
St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies — OVER 8.17
WIN
LeanOVER 8.17
Odds-110
Confidence0.549
VenueBusch Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupHunter Dobbins vs Andrew Painter
Run-total lens: OVER 8.17 in St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Hunter Dobbins vs Andrew Painter
Weather: 91.7°F, Wind 4.0 mph SE (in from LF), Humidity 67%, P.O.P. 6% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 9.0 to 8.11 (-0.89).
Run Total 7
Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers — OVER 9.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds-102
Confidence0.197
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Pitching MatchupReid Detmers vs MacKenzie Gore
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: offensive indicator edge, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.23 to 9.11 (+0.88).
Run Total 8
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 8.27
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.27
Odds-109
Confidence0.171
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 7:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupSonny Gray vs Jameson Taillon
Run-total lens: OVER 8.27 in Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: roof-controlled environment, offensive indicator edge, market moved total down, run context favors over.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Sonny Gray vs Jameson Taillon
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.27 to 7.5 (-0.77).
Run Total 9
Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins — OVER 9.17
WIN
LeanOVER 9.17
Odds-113
Confidence0.15
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 7:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupTrevor Rogers vs Dean Kremer
Run-total lens: OVER 9.17 in Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: warm run environment, market moved total up, run context favors over, team/park run history leans under.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Trevor Rogers vs Dean Kremer
Weather: 85.2°F, Wind 5.2 mph ENE (in from RF), Humidity 41%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved up from 8.5 to 9.33 (+0.83).
Run Total 10
San Francisco Giants vs Houston Astros — OVER 8.0
WIN
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-105
Confidence0.101
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 9:45 PM ET
Pitching MatchupBlade Tidwell vs Hayden Wesneski
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in San Francisco Giants vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: high humidity suppresses carry, offensive indicator edge, park leans pitcher-friendly, market moved total down.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Blade Tidwell vs Hayden Wesneski
Weather: 63.8°F, Wind 10.6 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 82%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total moved down from 8.3 to 8.0 (-0.3).