Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins — OVER 8.0
WIN
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-115
Confidence0.671
VenueTarget Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJesús Luzardo vs Connor Prielipp
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jesús Luzardo vs Connor Prielipp
Weather: 80.0°F, Wind 10.8 mph SSE (in from LF), Humidity 76%, P.O.P. 12% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 2
San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians — OVER 8.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.567
VenueProgressive Field
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupWandy Peralta vs Joey Cantillo
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Wandy Peralta vs Joey Cantillo
Weather: 77.7°F, Wind 4.6 mph SE (out to LF), Humidity 77%, P.O.P. 1% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 3
Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds — OVER 9.0
WIN
LeanOVER 9.0
Odds-119
Confidence0.558
VenueGreat American Ball Park
Game InfoStart: 6:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupRyan Gusto vs Brady Singer
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Ryan Gusto vs Brady Singer
Weather: 82.8°F, Wind 3.6 mph ESE (in from CF), Humidity 85%, P.O.P. 18% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 4
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds+103
Confidence0.525
VenueRogers Centre
Game InfoStart: 3:07 PM ET
Pitching MatchupCam Schlittler vs Braydon Fisher
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Cam Schlittler vs Braydon Fisher
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 5
Athletics vs Texas Rangers — OVER 9.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 9.5
Odds+101
Confidence0.46
VenueSutter Health Park
Game InfoStart: 9:40 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJ.T. Ginn vs MacKenzie Gore
Run-total lens: OVER 9.5 in Athletics vs Texas Rangers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Run-total lens: OVER 9.0 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Eduardo Rodriguez vs Grant Holmes
Weather: 92.5°F, Wind 2.9 mph N (out to CF), Humidity 49%, P.O.P. 3% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 7
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals — UNDER 9.0
LOSS
LeanUNDER 9.0
Odds-117
Confidence0.37
VenueWrigley Field
Game InfoStart: 2:20 PM ET
Pitching MatchupMatthew Boyd vs Michael McGreevy
Run-total lens: UNDER 9.0 in Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Matthew Boyd vs Michael McGreevy
San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies — UNDER 7.5
LOSS
LeanUNDER 7.5
Odds-106
Confidence0.295
VenueOracle Park
Game InfoStart: 4:05 PM ET
Pitching MatchupLogan Webb vs Michael Lorenzen
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Logan Webb vs Michael Lorenzen
Weather: 67.3°F, Wind 6.7 mph W (out to CF), Humidity 71%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 9
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-115
Confidence0.252
VenuePNC Park
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJared Jones vs Sonny Gray
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jared Jones vs Sonny Gray
Weather: 79.2°F, Wind 2.0 mph W (out to LF), Humidity 80%, P.O.P. 2% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 10
Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers — OVER 7.5
LOSS
LeanOVER 7.5
Odds-105
Confidence0.23
VenueUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Game InfoStart: 7:15 PM ET
Pitching MatchupJacob Misiorowski vs Justin Wrobleski
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Jacob Misiorowski vs Justin Wrobleski
Run-total lens: UNDER 7.5 in Washington Nationals vs New York Mets. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Brad Lord vs Sean Manaea
Weather: 84.2°F, Wind 3.6 mph N (in from CF), Humidity 39%, P.O.P. 0% (Open-Meteo fallback)
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 12
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros — OVER 8.5
WIN
LeanOVER 8.5
Odds-117
Confidence0.189
VenueDaikin Park
Game InfoStart: 7:10 PM ET
Pitching MatchupEmerson Hancock vs Hayden Wesneski
Run-total lens: OVER 8.5 in Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Emerson Hancock vs Hayden Wesneski
Run-total lens: OVER 7.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.
Expanded total context
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Bradish vs Ian Seymour
Weather: Dome/retractable roof environment — external wind conditions not applicable.
Total Movement: Total movement unavailable.
Run Total 14
Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals — OVER 8.0
LOSS
LeanOVER 8.0
Odds-102
Confidence0.048
VenueAngel Stadium
Game InfoStart: 9:38 PM ET
Pitching MatchupReid Detmers vs Randy Dobnak
Run-total lens: OVER 8.0 in Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals. Confidence is driven by weather and wind context, park/run environment, team offense-vs-prevention signals, total-line movement, and supporting run indicators (bullpen/platoon/umpire/pitch mix), plus historical and Savant contact baselines. Key bearing factors here: frozen pregame total pick.