SportzBallz NFL Desk

Football Picks

Independent NFL model picks, built for the weekly slate.

REG · Week 1 · 16 games
★ Ballz Pick of the Week ★

MIA +142

MIA at LV · Sun, Sep 13 · 4:25 PM EDT

Moneyline · +142 · 73.9% probability · +78.9% EV

Locked at game start · LOSS
NO at DET · Sun Sep 13 · Time TBD
WIN

DET

88.0% win probability

The Lions are set to roar at Ford Field, confidently covering the -7.0 spread against the Saints with a projected home margin of 13.8 points. With a robust cover probability of 68.82%, Detroit is poised to dominate their opponent, reflecting a sizable model edge. On the total, however, expect a lower-scoring affair, as the model predicts an under of 49.5 points, with a projected total of just 45.0. The odds suggest that home-field advantage amplifies the Lions’ offensive potency while the Saints' inefficiencies weigh heavily on their performance. Considering these factors, the best expected value lies in backing Detroit ATS, where the line aligns favorably to make a substantial impact. Market board — ATS: DET -7 at 68.8% cover probability; O/U: UNDER 49.5 at 63.1% probability; best expected value: ATS +31.4% at -110 versus 52.4% break-even.

Model rating gap +274 toward DET; home field adds 55 Elo points; matchup adjustment +17 at Ford Field (fieldturf, dome).

NO +260Away ML
DET -7Spread
O/U 49.5Total
DET -325Home ML
Lines: DraftKings · snapshot 2026-09-13T14:59:02.134124+00:00
Money Line: DET -32588.0% win probability · 76.0% model confidence · +15.1% expected value at -325 · 76.5% break-even
Ballz PickATS: DET -768.8% estimated cover probability · 6.8-point model edge · projected margin DET by 13.8 · +31.4% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
O/U: UNDER 49.565.3% estimated probability · 5.3-point edge · projected total 44.2 · +24.7% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
  • recent combined-total trends: DET 51.4, NO 38.5
  • scoring matchup baseline 44.9 versus league 46.3
  • offense-vs-defense EPA adjustment -0.5
  • availability adjustment from DET S questionable, DET OT out, NO RB questionable, NO TE out
+24QB / Passing
+57Offense vs Defense
+30Trenches
+55Situation
-24Recent Form
  • Passing EPA/play: DET +0.15, NO +0.02
  • Offensive EPA/play: DET +0.06, NO -0.02
  • Rushing EPA/play: DET -0.06, NO -0.07
CLE at JAX · Sun Sep 13 · Time TBD
WIN

JAX

84.7% win probability

The Jaguars are primed to cover the spread as 8.5-point favorites against the Browns, with a cover probability of 59.69% showcasing a solid model edge of 3.4 points. This projected margin of victory stands at 11.9, bolstered by Jacksonville's offensive efficiency (EPA of +0.21) against Cleveland's struggling defense (-0.30). With the total set at 40.5, there’s sufficient evidence for an OVER pick, as the projected total climbs to 41.6. The game's dynamics, alongside a notable injury to Cleveland’s linebacker and the questionable status of Jacksonville's running back, add layers to the unfolding drama at EverBank Stadium, making this a game to watch closely. Market board — ATS: JAX -8.5 at 59.7% cover probability; O/U: OVER 40.5 at 53.3% probability; best expected value: ATS +14.0% at -110 versus 52.4% break-even.

Model rating gap +209 toward JAX; home field adds 55 Elo points; matchup adjustment +33 at EverBank Stadium (grass, outdoors).

CLE +360Away ML
JAX -8.5Spread
O/U 40.5Total
JAX -470Home ML
Lines: DraftKings · snapshot 2026-09-13T14:59:02.134124+00:00
Money Line: JAX -47084.7% win probability · 69.3% model confidence · +2.7% expected value at -470 · 82.5% break-even
Ballz PickATS: JAX -8.559.7% estimated cover probability · 3.4-point model edge · projected margin JAX by 11.9 · +14.0% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
O/U: OVER 40.553.3% estimated probability · 1.1-point edge · projected total 41.6 · +1.7% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
  • recent combined-total trends: JAX 48.1, CLE 37.6
  • scoring matchup baseline 42.9 versus league 46.3
  • offense-vs-defense EPA adjustment -2.4
  • availability adjustment from JAX RB questionable, CLE LB out
+91QB / Passing
+32Offense vs Defense
-23Trenches
+55Situation
+63Recent Form
  • Passing EPA/play: JAX +0.21, CLE -0.30
  • Offensive EPA/play: JAX +0.08, CLE -0.22
  • Rushing EPA/play: JAX -0.09, CLE -0.10
WAS at PHI · Sun Sep 13 · Time TBD
WIN

PHI

83.7% win probability

In a clash that could shake the NFC East, the Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -6) are poised to cover against the Washington Commanders with a 65.16% probability, backed by a projected home margin of 11.4 points. Despite some key players sidelined for PHI, the match conditions favor a dominant showing. The projected total sits at 43.5, but the smart money is betting on the UNDER, with a significantly high expected value of 51.68% indicating a projected score of just 32.4. Historical data shows recent trends favor low scoring, making this a battle of defenses, and the Eagles look primed to unleash their strength on their home turf at Lincoln Financial Field. Market board — ATS: PHI -6 at 65.2% cover probability; O/U: UNDER 43.5 at 79.5% probability; best expected value: O/U +51.7% at -110 versus 52.4% break-even.

Model rating gap +242 toward PHI; home field adds 55 Elo points; matchup adjustment -13 at Lincoln Financial Field (grass, outdoors).

WAS +200Away ML
PHI -6Spread
O/U 43.5Total
PHI -245Home ML
Lines: Draft Kings · snapshot 2026-09-13T20:25:30.668140+00:00
Money Line: PHI -24583.7% win probability · 67.3% model confidence · +17.8% expected value at -245 · 71.0% break-even
ATS: PHI -665.2% estimated cover probability · 5.4-point model edge · projected margin PHI by 11.4 · +24.4% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
Ballz PickO/U: UNDER 43.579.5% estimated probability · 11.1-point edge · projected total 32.4 · +51.7% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
  • recent combined-total trends: PHI 36.8, WAS 46.2
  • scoring matchup baseline 41.5 versus league 46.3
  • offense-vs-defense EPA adjustment +0.1
  • availability adjustment from PHI WR out, PHI QB out, PHI QB out, PHI LB out
-10QB / Passing
-64Offense vs Defense
-42Trenches
+55Situation
+47Recent Form
  • Passing EPA/play: PHI -0.01, WAS +0.05
  • Offensive EPA/play: PHI -0.02, WAS -0.00
  • Rushing EPA/play: PHI -0.02, WAS -0.00
ARI at LAC · Sun Sep 13 · Time TBD
LOSS

LAC

81.7% win probability

The Chargers are set to cover their hefty -8.5 spread against the Cardinals with a projected home margin of 10.4, riding a 55% chance of victory when the teams face off at SoFi Stadium. While L.A. sits at a modest -0.07 in passing EPA per play, they benefit from an overwhelming matchup edge that raises their chances considerably. Meanwhile, the model suggests betting the UNDER at 47.5, projecting a final total of just 43 points, backed by recent combined scoring trends of LAC at 37.5 and ARI at 53.2. The best value lies in the UNDER market, reflecting an expected value of 0.2025, bolstered by key absences on both sides. Market board — ATS: LAC -8.5 at 55.5% cover probability; O/U: UNDER 47.5 at 63.0% probability; best expected value: O/U +20.3% at -110 versus 52.4% break-even.

Model rating gap +221 toward LAC; home field adds 55 Elo points; matchup adjustment -16 at SoFi Stadium (matrixturf, dome).

ARI +350Away ML
LAC -8.5Spread
O/U 47.5Total
LAC -455Home ML
Lines: Draft Kings · snapshot 2026-09-13T20:25:30.668140+00:00
Money Line: LAC -45581.7% win probability · 63.5% model confidence · -0.3% expected value at -455 · 82.0% break-even
ATS: LAC -8.555.5% estimated cover probability · 1.9-point model edge · projected margin LAC by 10.4 · +5.9% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
Ballz PickO/U: UNDER 47.563.0% estimated probability · 4.5-point edge · projected total 43.0 · +20.3% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
  • recent combined-total trends: LAC 37.5, ARI 53.2
  • scoring matchup baseline 45.4 versus league 46.3
  • offense-vs-defense EPA adjustment -0.5
  • availability adjustment from LAC S out, LAC CB out, ARI QB out, ARI S out
-8QB / Passing
-74Offense vs Defense
-35Trenches
+55Situation
+36Recent Form
  • Passing EPA/play: LAC -0.07, ARI -0.02
  • Offensive EPA/play: LAC -0.11, ARI -0.02
  • Rushing EPA/play: LAC -0.02, ARI -0.05
ATL at PIT · Sun Sep 13 · Time TBD
WIN

PIT

74.2% win probability

In a contest where the Steelers host the Falcons, the pick is straightforward: take Pittsburgh at -6.5 against the spread, projecting a solid cover probability of 52.3%. The model sees this game ending with a margin of victory of 7.3 points for the home side. With Atlanta's starting quarterback sidelined and defensive vulnerabilities looming, expect the Steelers to dominate both the trenches and recent form stats significantly. As for the total, lean towards the over at 40.5; while the model's projected total stands slightly higher at 40.9, the recent combined trends suggest a potential for scoring explosion despite efficiency concerns. DraftKings gives the best value on the ATS, marking an opportunity not to be missed. Market board — ATS: PIT -6.5 at 52.3% cover probability; O/U: OVER 40.5 at 51.1% probability; best expected value: ATS -0.2% at -110 versus 52.4% break-even.

Model rating gap +127 toward PIT; home field adds 55 Elo points; matchup adjustment +1 at Acrisure Stadium (grass, outdoors).

ATL +240Away ML
PIT -6.5Spread
O/U 40.5Total
PIT -298Home ML
Lines: DraftKings · snapshot 2026-09-13T14:59:02.134124+00:00
Money Line: PIT -29874.2% win probability · 48.3% model confidence · -1.0% expected value at -298 · 74.9% break-even
Ballz PickATS: PIT -6.552.3% estimated cover probability · 0.8-point model edge · projected margin PIT by 7.3 · -0.2% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
O/U: OVER 40.551.1% estimated probability · 0.4-point edge · projected total 40.9 · -2.4% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
  • recent combined-total trends: PIT 44.0, ATL 47.1
  • scoring matchup baseline 45.6 versus league 46.3
  • offense-vs-defense EPA adjustment -0.1
  • availability adjustment from PIT CB questionable, PIT CB out, ATL QB out, ATL DE questionable
-4QB / Passing
+1Offense vs Defense
+7Trenches
+55Situation
+6Recent Form
  • Passing EPA/play: PIT -0.01, ATL +0.01
  • Offensive EPA/play: PIT +0.02, ATL -0.01
  • Rushing EPA/play: PIT +0.04, ATL -0.03
MIA at LV · Sun Sep 13 · Time TBD
LOSS

MIA

73.9% win probability

The Miami Dolphins are primed to cover the +3.0 spread against the Las Vegas Raiders, boasting an impressive 76.91% probability of doing so, buoyed by a projected margin of -7.2. With a significant model edge of 10.2 points, Miami's offense is firing on all cylinders compared to an inefficient Raiders defense. Notably, the Dolphins' EPA per play stands at +0.06, while the Raiders languish at -0.24. Additionally, the weather-controlled environment of Allegiant Stadium negates any outdoor factors, steering the matchup towards the UNDER of 40.5, with a projected total of just 35.7, driven by injuries on the Raiders' side. With moneyline odds at +142 providing the highest expected value, this matchup offers a ripe opportunity for savvy bettors. Market board — ATS: MIA +3 at 76.9% cover probability; O/U: UNDER 40.5 at 64.0% probability; best expected value: money line +78.9% at +142 versus 41.3% break-even.

Model rating gap -196 toward LV; home field adds 55 Elo points; matchup adjustment -40 at Allegiant Stadium (grass, dome).

MIA +142Away ML
LV -3Spread
O/U 40.5Total
LV -170Home ML
Lines: Draft Kings · snapshot 2026-09-13T20:25:30.668140+00:00
Ballz PickMoney Line: MIA +14273.9% win probability · 47.9% model confidence · +78.9% expected value at +142 · 41.3% break-even
ATS: MIA +376.9% estimated cover probability · 10.2-point model edge · projected margin MIA by 7.2 · +46.8% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
O/U: UNDER 40.564.0% estimated probability · 4.8-point edge · projected total 35.7 · +22.2% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
  • recent combined-total trends: LV 39.2, MIA 43.5
  • scoring matchup baseline 41.4 versus league 46.3
  • offense-vs-defense EPA adjustment -1.3
  • availability adjustment from LV QB out, LV LB out, LV CB out, LV DT out
-54QB / Passing
-64Offense vs Defense
-66Trenches
+55Situation
-37Recent Form
  • Passing EPA/play: LV -0.24, MIA +0.06
  • Offensive EPA/play: LV -0.29, MIA +0.00
  • Rushing EPA/play: LV -0.28, MIA -0.01
NE at SEA · Wed Sep 9 · Time TBD
WIN

SEA

73.4% win probability

Back the Seattle Seahawks to cover the spread at home, favored by 3 points against the New England Patriots, with a projected margin of 7.1 points solidifying their edge. The model suggests a robust 61.6% likelihood of Seattle covering, bolstered by recent form and their overall efficiency against New England's struggling offense. It’s worth noting the under is the best value at 44.5 total points, with an impressive 66.8% chance to hit, as the projected total sits at a mere 38.6, informed by key injuries impacting the Seahawks' roster. With historical scoring trends also favoring a lower output, all signs point toward a Seahawks win but a relatively quiet game in scoring. Market board — ATS: SEA -3 at 61.6% cover probability; O/U: UNDER 44.5 at 66.8% probability; best expected value: O/U +27.5% at -110 versus 52.4% break-even.

Model rating gap +158 toward SEA; home field adds 55 Elo points; matchup adjustment -37 at Lumen Field (fieldturf, outdoors).

NE +142Away ML
SEA -3Spread
O/U 44.5Total
SEA -170Home ML
Lines: Draft Kings · snapshot 2026-09-09T23:59:25.227566+00:00
Money Line: SEA -17073.4% win probability · 46.8% model confidence · +16.6% expected value at -170 · 63.0% break-even
ATS: SEA -361.6% estimated cover probability · 4.1-point model edge · projected margin SEA by 7.1 · +17.7% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
Ballz PickO/U: UNDER 44.566.8% estimated probability · 5.9-point edge · projected total 38.6 · +27.5% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
  • recent combined-total trends: SEA 41.0, NE 50.5
  • scoring matchup baseline 45.8 versus league 46.3
  • offense-vs-defense EPA adjustment -0.2
  • availability adjustment from SEA S out, SEA QB out, SEA WR out, SEA DE out
-68QB / Passing
-67Offense vs Defense
-47Trenches
+55Situation
-15Recent Form
  • Passing EPA/play: SEA -0.03, NE +0.35
  • Offensive EPA/play: SEA -0.01, NE +0.22
  • Rushing EPA/play: SEA +0.02, NE +0.11
BAL at IND · Sun Sep 13 · Time TBD
WIN

BAL

71.2% win probability

The Ravens are the pick to cover at a line of -3.5 against the Colts, boasting a solid 58% cover probability that reflects a projected home-margin of -6.3. Expect Baltimore to flex their muscle in this matchup, given their offensive efficiency (EPA/play of +0.05) compared to the Colts’ struggling unit (EPA/play of -0.06). With recent trends favoring the under, the total sits at 48.5; however, the recommended play is under, projected at just 47.7. Keep an eye on the moneyline, which offers the best value at -175 for the Ravens, highlighting the edge in efficiency and matchup disparities as the teams clash at Lucas Oil Stadium. Market board — ATS: BAL -3.5 at 58.0% cover probability; O/U: UNDER 48.5 at 52.4% probability; best expected value: money line +11.8% at -175 versus 63.6% break-even.

Model rating gap -209 toward IND; home field adds 55 Elo points; matchup adjustment -3 at Lucas Oil Stadium (fieldturf).

BAL -175Away ML
BAL -3.5Spread
O/U 48.5Total
IND +145Home ML
Lines: DraftKings · snapshot 2026-09-13T14:59:02.134124+00:00
Ballz PickMoney Line: BAL -17571.2% win probability · 42.4% model confidence · +11.8% expected value at -175 · 63.6% break-even
ATS: BAL -3.558.0% estimated cover probability · 2.8-point model edge · projected margin BAL by 6.3 · +10.7% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
O/U: UNDER 48.552.4% estimated probability · 0.8-point edge · projected total 47.7 · +0.1% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
  • recent combined-total trends: IND 50.9, BAL 44.8
  • scoring matchup baseline 47.8 versus league 46.3
  • offense-vs-defense EPA adjustment -0.0
  • availability adjustment from IND LB out, IND TE questionable, BAL WR questionable, BAL LB out
+25QB / Passing
+2Offense vs Defense
-18Trenches
+55Situation
-29Recent Form
  • Passing EPA/play: IND -0.01, BAL -0.15
  • Offensive EPA/play: IND -0.06, BAL +0.05
  • Rushing EPA/play: IND -0.04, BAL +0.17
SF at LA · Thu Sep 10 · Time TBD
LOSS

LA

70.3% win probability

The Rams are primed to cover the spread at -3.5 against the 49ers, boasting a projected home margin of six points and a solid cover probability of 57.16%. With the offensive efficiency metrics heavily favoring LA, who hold a passing EPA per play of +0.24, they're well-positioned to exploit San Francisco's vulnerabilities. On the betting front, the total is set at 47.5, which points towards the OVER given the projected total of 55.3 and the strong combined scoring trends of both teams. For those looking for the best value, a market offering -110 on the OVER presents a compelling edge, making this matchup one not to miss. Market board — ATS: LA -3.5 at 57.2% cover probability; O/U: OVER 47.5 at 71.8% probability; best expected value: O/U +37.1% at -110 versus 52.4% break-even.

Model rating gap +91 toward LA; home field adds 55 Elo points; matchup adjustment +4 at Melbourne Cricket Ground (grass, dome).

SF +170Away ML
LAR -3.5Spread
O/U 47.5Total
LA -205Home ML
Lines: Draft Kings · snapshot 2026-09-10T23:03:36.568875+00:00
Money Line: LA -20570.3% win probability · 40.6% model confidence · +4.6% expected value at -205 · 67.2% break-even
ATS: LA -3.557.2% estimated cover probability · 2.5-point model edge · projected margin LA by 6.0 · +9.1% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
Ballz PickO/U: OVER 47.571.8% estimated probability · 7.8-point edge · projected total 55.3 · +37.1% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
  • recent combined-total trends: LA 57.5, SF 53.2
  • scoring matchup baseline 55.4 versus league 46.3
  • offense-vs-defense EPA adjustment +2.0
  • availability adjustment from LA DT out, SF DT questionable, SF DE out
+6QB / Passing
-10Offense vs Defense
+5Trenches
+55Situation
+24Recent Form
  • Passing EPA/play: LA +0.24, SF +0.21
  • Offensive EPA/play: LA +0.18, SF +0.13
  • Rushing EPA/play: LA +0.09, SF +0.03
CHI at CAR · Sun Sep 13 · Time TBD
WIN

CHI

70.2% win probability

In a matchup where confidence swells for the Bears, the pick is CHI -3 against the spread, boasting a 58.57% cover probability. With a projected home margin of 6 points favoring Carolina, this game marks a compelling clash at Bank of America Stadium. The model also circles the UNDER 47.5, with a projected total of just 43.5, enhancing the expected value at -110. Adding a dose of intrigue, the recent combined total trends show the Panthers leaning lower at 39.5, while Chicago hovers around 46.2. With several key players on both sides listed as questionable, adjustments are crucial, making this contest an electric gamble worth watching. Market board — ATS: CHI -3 at 58.6% cover probability; O/U: UNDER 47.5 at 61.7% probability; best expected value: O/U +17.7% at -110 versus 52.4% break-even.

Model rating gap -189 toward CAR; home field adds 55 Elo points; matchup adjustment -15 at Bank of America Stadium (grass, outdoors).

CHI -170Away ML
CHI -3Spread
O/U 47.5Total
CAR +142Home ML
Lines: DraftKings · snapshot 2026-09-13T14:59:02.134124+00:00
Money Line: CHI -17070.2% win probability · 40.4% model confidence · +11.5% expected value at -170 · 63.0% break-even
ATS: CHI -358.6% estimated cover probability · 3.0-point model edge · projected margin CHI by 6.0 · +11.8% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
Ballz PickO/U: UNDER 47.562.2% estimated probability · 4.2-point edge · projected total 43.3 · +18.8% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
  • recent combined-total trends: CAR 39.5, CHI 46.2
  • scoring matchup baseline 42.9 versus league 46.3
  • offense-vs-defense EPA adjustment +0.5
  • availability adjustment from CAR LB out, CAR OT out, CHI S questionable, CHI WR questionable
-5QB / Passing
-15Offense vs Defense
-43Trenches
+55Situation
-26Recent Form
  • Passing EPA/play: CAR +0.02, CHI +0.04
  • Offensive EPA/play: CAR -0.05, CHI +0.07
  • Rushing EPA/play: CAR -0.13, CHI +0.11
TB at CIN · Sun Sep 13 · Time TBD
WIN

CIN

58.7% win probability

With a tight 3.5-point spread favoring Cincinnati, this week’s model confidently picks the Bengals to cover, projecting a narrow 2.4-point home margin. With Cincinnati carrying an edge in recent performance and a +0.12 EPA per play on offense, their efficiency should exploit Tampa Bay’s defensive struggles, particularly in the trenches. However, the smart money leans toward the UNDER on a 50.5 total, reflecting an expected total of 46.3. This likelihood comes courtesy of notable injuries to key Bengals players alongside historical trends suggesting scoring is likely to fall short of expectations. Bettors searching for value should focus on the UNDER, boasting a solid +0.188 expected value. Market board — ATS: TB +3.5 at 53.2% cover probability; O/U: UNDER 50.5 at 62.3% probability; best expected value: O/U +18.9% at -110 versus 52.4% break-even.

Model rating gap -2 toward CIN; home field adds 55 Elo points; matchup adjustment +8 at Paycor Stadium (fieldturf, outdoors).

TB +170Away ML
CIN -3.5Spread
O/U 50.5Total
CIN -205Home ML
Lines: DraftKings · snapshot 2026-09-13T14:59:02.134124+00:00
Money Line: CIN -20558.7% win probability · 17.4% model confidence · -12.7% expected value at -205 · 67.2% break-even
ATS: TB +3.553.2% estimated cover probability · 1.1-point model edge · projected margin CIN by 2.4 · +1.5% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
Ballz PickO/U: UNDER 50.561.9% estimated probability · 4.1-point edge · projected total 46.4 · +18.2% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
  • recent combined-total trends: CIN 48.8, TB 45.6
  • scoring matchup baseline 47.2 versus league 46.3
  • offense-vs-defense EPA adjustment +0.4
  • availability adjustment from CIN DE doubtful, TB LB questionable, TB OT doubtful, TB WR doubtful
+32QB / Passing
-10Offense vs Defense
+1Trenches
+55Situation
+19Recent Form
  • Passing EPA/play: CIN +0.12, TB -0.06
  • Offensive EPA/play: CIN -0.01, TB -0.03
  • Rushing EPA/play: CIN +0.01, TB +0.05
DEN at KC · Mon Sep 14 · Time TBD
LOSS

DEN

56.5% win probability

In a crucial matchup at GEHA Field, the Denver Broncos are poised to cover the 2.5-point spread against the Kansas City Chiefs, boasting a solid 62.18% cover probability. Despite a projected home margin of -1.8 in favor of KC, the Broncos’ impressive offensive efficiency edges them out in this bout. With a projected total of 39.1, the model leans towards the UNDER on the 43.5 line, showcasing a notable expected value of 0.200 on that side. The best betting value arises from taking the moneyline at +124 for Denver, presenting a potential edge as several key Chiefs players, including quarterback Patrick Mahomes, face uncertainty heading into the game. Market board — ATS: DEN +2.5 at 62.2% cover probability; O/U: UNDER 43.5 at 62.9% probability; best expected value: money line +26.6% at +124 versus 44.6% break-even.

Model rating gap -83 toward KC; home field adds 55 Elo points; matchup adjustment -18 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (grass, outdoors).

DEN +114Away ML
KC -2.5Spread
O/U 43.5Total
KC -135Home ML
Lines: Draft Kings · snapshot 2026-09-13T23:06:58.315041+00:00
Ballz PickMoney Line: DEN +11456.5% win probability · 13.1% model confidence · +21.0% expected value at +114 · 46.7% break-even
ATS: DEN +2.562.2% estimated cover probability · 4.3-point model edge · projected margin DEN by 1.8 · +18.7% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
O/U: UNDER 43.559.5% estimated probability · 3.2-point edge · projected total 40.3 · +13.6% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
  • recent combined-total trends: KC 37.0, DEN 40.1
  • scoring matchup baseline 38.6 versus league 46.3
  • offense-vs-defense EPA adjustment -1.0
  • availability adjustment from KC OT out, KC S out, KC DT out, DEN LB out
-21QB / Passing
-18Offense vs Defense
-27Trenches
+55Situation
-33Recent Form
  • Passing EPA/play: KC -0.01, DEN +0.11
  • Offensive EPA/play: KC -0.12, DEN +0.03
  • Rushing EPA/play: KC -0.06, DEN -0.05
DAL at NYG · Sun Sep 13 · Time TBD
LOSS

DAL

56.5% win probability

The Giants may be home underdogs, but don’t let the -3 line fool you; they’re poised for an edge against the spread, boasting a 53.5% cover probability as they host the Cowboys. With a projected margin of just -1.8, NYG’s resilience at MetLife could flip the script, while the matchup doesn’t favor the visitors, who hold a mere offensive EPA advantage. Meanwhile, the over/under sits at 47.5, and the smart play is on the OVER, given a projected total of 51.0 and a robust 60.3% likelihood of hitting. Dive into the action, as this clash promises a scoring frenzy! Market board — ATS: NYG +3 at 53.4% cover probability; O/U: OVER 47.5 at 60.3% probability; best expected value: O/U +15.2% at -110 versus 52.4% break-even.

Model rating gap -93 toward NYG; home field adds 55 Elo points; matchup adjustment -8 at MetLife Stadium (fieldturf, outdoors).

DAL -166Away ML
DAL -3Spread
O/U 47.5Total
NYG +140Home ML
Lines: Draft Kings · snapshot 2026-09-13T23:06:58.315041+00:00
Money Line: DAL -16656.5% win probability · 13.0% model confidence · -9.5% expected value at -166 · 62.4% break-even
ATS: NYG +353.4% estimated cover probability · 1.2-point model edge · projected margin DAL by 1.8 · +2.0% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
Ballz PickO/U: OVER 47.561.0% estimated probability · 3.8-point edge · projected total 51.3 · +16.5% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
  • recent combined-total trends: NYG 46.8, DAL 55.2
  • scoring matchup baseline 51.0 versus league 46.3
  • offense-vs-defense EPA adjustment +1.7
  • weather report not yet available; no weather adjustment applied
-38QB / Passing
-27Offense vs Defense
+20Trenches
+55Situation
+15Recent Form
  • Passing EPA/play: NYG -0.03, DAL +0.18
  • Offensive EPA/play: NYG +0.04, DAL +0.08
  • Rushing EPA/play: NYG +0.04, DAL -0.02
BUF at HOU · Sun Sep 13 · Time TBD
WIN

BUF

56.0% win probability

The Bills are set to conquer the Texans, poised to cover the spread at -1.5 with a 50.58% probability, despite a narrow projected margin of just -1.7. With Houston’s recent performance dipping—averaging 43.1 points in home games versus Buffalo's explosive 50.1 away average—the Bills should exploit this efficiency gap. The projected total of 45.3 inches closer to the line of 44.5, making the over an enticing pick with a 52.25% chance to hit. Bettors seeking value should consider the moneyline, where Buffalo offers the best expected value at -115, backed by a solid 55.99% win probability. Market board — ATS: BUF -1.5 at 50.6% cover probability; O/U: OVER 44.5 at 52.2% probability; best expected value: money line +4.7% at -115 versus 53.5% break-even.

Model rating gap -79 toward HOU; home field adds 55 Elo points; matchup adjustment -18 at Reliant Stadium (astroturf).

BUF -112Away ML
BUF -1.5Spread
O/U 44.5Total
HOU -108Home ML
Lines: DraftKings · snapshot 2026-09-13T14:59:02.134124+00:00
Ballz PickMoney Line: BUF -11256.0% win probability · 12.0% model confidence · +6.0% expected value at -112 · 52.8% break-even
ATS: BUF -1.550.6% estimated cover probability · 0.2-point model edge · projected margin BUF by 1.7 · -3.4% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
O/U: OVER 44.552.6% estimated probability · 0.9-point edge · projected total 45.4 · +0.3% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
  • recent combined-total trends: HOU 43.1, BUF 50.1
  • scoring matchup baseline 46.6 versus league 46.3
  • offense-vs-defense EPA adjustment -0.4
  • availability adjustment from BUF RB questionable, BUF DT questionable, BUF CB questionable, BUF OT questionable
+13QB / Passing
-46Offense vs Defense
-74Trenches
+55Situation
-3Recent Form
  • Passing EPA/play: HOU +0.14, BUF +0.06
  • Offensive EPA/play: HOU -0.03, BUF +0.10
  • Rushing EPA/play: HOU -0.13, BUF +0.06
GB at MIN · Sun Sep 13 · Time TBD
WIN

MIN

55.6% win probability

The Vikings, favored by 1.5 points, look to cover the spread against the Packers, with a projected margin of 1.6 points offering just enough edge to back Minnesota straight-up. With a cover probability sitting at 50.29%, this is a closely contested matchup at U.S. Bank Stadium, where limited weather concerns and a strong home field add some extra juice. Meanwhile, the over/under for this clash is set at 46.5, but the model leans heavily towards the UNDER, expecting a total around 40.3, significantly driven by historical trends and efficiency mismatches, particularly with Green Bay's offensive struggles. For bettors, the best value is found in the under, boasting a solid 67.68% probability to hit. Market board — ATS: MIN -1.5 at 50.3% cover probability; O/U: UNDER 46.5 at 67.7% probability; best expected value: O/U +29.2% at -110 versus 52.4% break-even.

Model rating gap +16 toward MIN; home field adds 55 Elo points; matchup adjustment -32 at U.S. Bank Stadium (sportturf, dome).

GB +105Away ML
MIN -1.5Spread
O/U 46.5Total
MIN -125Home ML
Lines: Draft Kings · snapshot 2026-09-13T20:25:30.668140+00:00
Money Line: MIN -12555.6% win probability · 11.2% model confidence · +0.1% expected value at -125 · 55.6% break-even
ATS: MIN -1.550.3% estimated cover probability · 0.1-point model edge · projected margin MIN by 1.6 · -4.0% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
Ballz PickO/U: UNDER 46.575.7% estimated probability · 9.4-point edge · projected total 37.1 · +44.5% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
  • recent combined-total trends: MIN 32.9, GB 45.2
  • scoring matchup baseline 39.1 versus league 46.3
  • offense-vs-defense EPA adjustment -0.7
  • availability adjustment from MIN RB out, MIN QB out, MIN DE out, MIN S out
-56QB / Passing
-94Offense vs Defense
-17Trenches
+55Situation
+7Recent Form
  • Passing EPA/play: MIN -0.06, GB +0.25
  • Offensive EPA/play: MIN -0.13, GB +0.10
  • Rushing EPA/play: MIN +0.05, GB -0.02
NYJ at TEN · Sun Sep 13 · Time TBD
LOSS

TEN

53.9% win probability

The Jets roll into Nashville as 1.5-point underdogs, facing a Titans squad that has seen projections tilt slightly in their favor, but the smart money lies on the OVER at 38.5. Despite projected scoring struggles for both offenses—with Tennessee and New York's efficiency lacking at -0.11 and -0.40 EPA per play, respectively—the model's expected total of 45.8 indicates significant value on this line. With a cover probability of 51.15% for the Jets and a stronger OVER probability at 70.68%, betters should consider Draft Kings' market for the best expected value. Historical trends also favor points; recent combined totals have neared 46, suggesting this matchup could surprise. Market board — ATS: NYJ +1.5 at 51.1% cover probability; O/U: OVER 38.5 at 70.7% probability; best expected value: O/U +34.9% at -110 versus 52.4% break-even.

Model rating gap -42 toward TEN; home field adds 55 Elo points; matchup adjustment +14 at Nissan Stadium (grass, outdoors).

NYJ -102Away ML
TEN -1.5Spread
O/U 38.5Total
TEN -118Home ML
Lines: DraftKings · snapshot 2026-09-13T14:59:02.134124+00:00
Money Line: TEN -11853.9% win probability · 7.8% model confidence · -0.5% expected value at -118 · 54.1% break-even
ATS: NYJ +1.551.1% estimated cover probability · 0.4-point model edge · projected margin TEN by 1.1 · -2.4% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
Ballz PickO/U: OVER 38.572.7% estimated probability · 8.2-point edge · projected total 46.7 · +38.9% expected value at -110 · 52.4% break-even
  • recent combined-total trends: TEN 46.9, NYJ 45.9
  • scoring matchup baseline 46.4 versus league 46.3
  • offense-vs-defense EPA adjustment -0.2
  • availability adjustment from TEN LB out, NYJ RB out, NYJ CB doubtful, NYJ DE out
+51QB / Passing
-9Offense vs Defense
+4Trenches
+55Situation
+34Recent Form
  • Passing EPA/play: TEN -0.11, NYJ -0.40
  • Offensive EPA/play: TEN -0.11, NYJ -0.21
  • Rushing EPA/play: TEN +0.00, NYJ -0.09